Oscar Predictions Time: The Everything Bagel Cometh

Here's who will -- and should -- win on Oscar night

Has it already been a year since our last Oscar predictions? Jimmy Kimmel returns on hosting and the full slate of categories is back, so whatever damage Disney did to the Oscars last year seems to be repaired(ish), unless there’s another pointless Encanto number that’s dead on arrival.

While we won’t talk about Bruno any further (and thank god for that), this year’s Oscar telecast should be exciting even if one is indifferent to many of the contenders. We have an open race in many categories. Even better, some of the bigger contests could go any way. Let’s not dilly dally: relax your triangle of sadness with our Oscar predictions!

All contributors to That Shelf were invited to submit their predictions and personal picks. Respondents could abstain in any category in which they hadn’t seen enough nominees or didn’t have an opinion. (And, like the Academy, we didn’t poll them to see how many people actually saw To Leslie.) Respondents for this poll were Barbara Goslawski, Bil Antoniou, Colin Biggs, Courtney Small, Dakota Arsenault, Daniel Grant, Deirdre Crimmins, Emma Badame, Jason Gorber, Marc Winegust, Pat Mullen, Shawn Peer, and Victor Stiff.

Best Picture

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

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It seemed as if the Oscars could only go upwards after awarding CODA, but let’s face it: people love an everything bagel slathered in cream cheese. Perhaps the bar was simply low after the COVID years, but Everything Everywhere All at Once is pretty much as locked as a film could be. After proving an art house hit, it surpassed expectations and dominated the industry circuit winning everything, everywhere, and, seemingly, all at once. The Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild, and American Cinema Editors all gave their top prizes to the Daniels’ multi-verse romp, presumably because it had the most of everything. (Although the performances are undeniably great.) However, the film got trounced at the BAFTAs when All Quiet on the Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin dominated and took many prizes that seemed like sure things. The BAFTAs have sizable overlap in terms of the Oscars’ voting body, so there’s room for error here, which is certainly possible since the Oscar voters skew older and EEAAO plays “younger.” But what film is a realistic challenger?

 

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Daniel

Everything Everywhere All at Once: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Marc, Pat, Shawn, Victor

The Fabelmans: Bil

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Should win

In the spirit of following the format used by Oscar voters, respondents were invited to submit a ranked ballot. In order to win by Academy rules, a film requires 50% of the vote + 1. Each round, the film with the lowest percentage of votes is eliminated and ballots that had the film at number one are redistributed according to their next vote. This process of elimination and redistribution continues until a film reaches the 50% +1 threshold. As with Oscar voting, respondents were not required to fill the ballot.  In our case, Everything Everywhere wins on the first ballot with 61% of the top votes.

Barbara: (1) Women Talking (2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (3) The Banshees of Inisherin (4) All Quiet on the Western Front (5) Tár (6) The Fabelmans

Bil: (1) Tár (2) Triangle of Sadness (3) Top Gun: Maverick (4) All Quiet on the Western Front (5) The Banshees of Inisherin (6) Everything Everywhere All at Once (7) Avatar: The Way of Water (8) Elvis (9) Women Talking (10) The Fabelmans

Colin: (1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2) The Banshees of Inisherin

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Courtney: (1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2) All Quiet on the Western Front (3) Top Gun: Maverick (4) Tár (5) Women Talking (6) Elvis (7) The Banshees of Inisherin (8) The Fabelmans (9) Triangle of Sadness (10) Avatar: The Way of Water

Dakota: (1) Tár (2) Top Gun: Maverick (3) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4) All Quiet on the Western Front (5) Women Talking (6) Triangle of Sadness (7) The Fabelmans (8) The Banshees of Inisherin (9) Elvis (10) Avatar: The Way of Water

Daniel: (1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2) The Banshees of Inisherin (3) The Fabelmans (4) Women Talking (5) Triangle of Sadness (6) Tár (7) Top Gun: Maverick (8) All Quiet on the Western Front (9) Elvis (10) Avatar: The Way of Water

Deirdre: (1) Everything Everywhere (2) The Banshees of Inisherin (3) Triangle of Sadness (4) Elvis

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Emma: (1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2) The Banshees of Inisherin (3) Women Talking (4) All Quiet on the Western Front (5) Tár (6) Top Gun: Maverick (7) Triangle of Sadness (8) The Fabelmans (9) Elvis (10) Avatar: The Way of Water

Jason: (1) The Fabelmans (2) Triangle of Sadness (3) Tár (4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5) Top Gun: Maverick (6) The Banshees of Inisherin (7) Elvis (8) Women Talking (9) All Quiet on the Western Front (10) Avatar: The Way of Water

Marc: (1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2) The Fabelmans (3) Top Gun Maverick (4) The Banshees of Inisherin (5) Women Talking (6) Avatar: The Way of Water (7) All Quiet on the Western Front (8) Elvis (9) Triangle of Sadness

Pat: (1) Women Talking (2) Tár (3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4) The Banshees of Inisherin (5) Top Gun: Maverick (6) The Fabelmans (7) Elvis (8) Everything Everywhere All at Once (9) Triangle of Sadness (10) Avatar: The Way of Water

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Shawn: (1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2) Top Gun: Maverick (3) Elvis (4) Avatar: The Way of Water (5) The Banshees of Inisherin (6) The Fabelmans (7) All Quiet on the Western Front (8) Triangle of Sadness (9) Tár (10) Women Talking

Victor: (1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2) Avatar: The Way of Water (3) Top Gun: Maverick (4) The Fabelmans (5) The Banshees of Inisherin (6) Triangle of Sadness (7) All Quiet on the Western Front (8) Women Talking (9) Tár (10) Elvis

 

This for That

Barbara says: Swap out Avatar for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Colin says: Swap out All Quiet on the Western Front for Nope

Courtney says: Swap out Triangle of Sadness for Aftersun

Dakota says: Swap out Avatar for Babylon

Emma says: Swap out Elvis for The Woman King

Pat says: Swap out Avatar for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Best Director

The nominees: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans; Todd Field, Tár; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

The Daniels are the men of the hour. (And it’s only men here, folks!) Golden Globe winner Spielberg could potentially squeak in if voters respond to his coming of age tale or decide to share the love, while BAFTA winner Edward Berger (All Quiet) isn’t even nominated. Can anyone really make a love letter to the movies like Spielberg, though?

 

Will win

Daniels, Everything Everywhere: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Jason, Marc, Pat, Shawn

Todd Field, Tár: Daniel

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans: Bil, Emma, Victor

 

Should win

Daniels, Everything Everywhere: Barbara, Courtney, Dakota, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Marc, Shawn, Victor

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans: Colin, Jason

Todd Field, Tár: Bil, Pat

 

This for That

Barbara says: Todd Field and Ruben Östlund for Sarah Polley (Women Talking) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)

Emma says: Swap out Steven Spielberg or Ruben Östlund for Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Pat says: Swap out Ruben Östlund and Daniels for Laura Poitras (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed) and Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Best Actress

The nominees: Cate Blanchett, Tár; Ana de Armas, Blonde; Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Oscar pools will be won and lost with this one. Friendships and wine glasses will be broken. Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett have been in a dead heat all season. Conventional wisdom says that Yeoh should win if Everything Everywhere is the favourite for Best Picture. She carries the film and even folks who don’t love the film (ie: me) totally love her work in it. She’s also never been nominated by the Academy despite strong support for performances in films like Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Crazy Rich Asians. But Everything Everywhere could also be a Birdman scenario: the whole thing hinged on Michael Keaton’s performance and he, too, was (is!) an overlooked industry veteran who drew upon his action star roots. Birdman won Best Picture and yet Keaton still lost to Eddie Redmayne, whose performance in The Theory of Everything carried the film towards additional nominations.

Blanchett, however, is an industry titan who arguably delivers the performance of her career in Tár. This is a huge performance, which says a lot considering that she’s already won two Oscars for tour de force turns in The Aviator and Blue Jasmine and is among the most acclaimed actors of her generation. Tár also arguably overperformed in the Oscar nominations, netting citations for directing, editing, and cinematography, which indicates that it also has a lot of support. She’s the film’s only realistic chance at a win, whereas Yeoh fans can still honour her work by voting for the film itself.

However, Blanchett has two Oscars already and this race has become especially politicized. After Andrea Riseborough scored a come-from-behind nomination after a last-ditch rally by her fellow actors to recognize her brilliant work in To Leslie, the conversation shifted when Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler were surprise omissions. There’s a lot going on here that’s fodder for a full article, especially since many of Riseborough’s supporters praised Davis and Deadwyler’s work amid a campaign that somewhat backfired while trying to land the perceived “fifth spot” when they perceived Blanchett, Davis, Deadwyler, and Yeoh to be guaranteed locks.

Seeing the two Black women fall short of nominations that many suspected they would get, Yeoh arguably benefitted from Riseborough’s nomination more than Riseborough did. Especially since Yeoh’s the first Asian-identifying woman up for Best Actress in the history of the Oscars, it makes the disparity for opportunities glaring, doubly so when Blanchett already has two Oscars. But for Blanchett fans, why should the actress not be recognized for outdoing herself yet again? Ironically, the question of the work versus the artist is at the heart of Tár, which makes the debate extra juicy.

 

Will win

Cate Blanchett, Tár: Barbara, Dakota, Emma, Victor

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere: Bil, Colin, Courtney, Daniel, Deirdre, Jason, Marc, Pat, Shawn

 

Should win

Cate Blanchett, Tár: Bil, Dakota, Jason, Marc, Pat,

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Jason, Deirdre, Emma, Shawn, Victor

 

This for That

Barbara says: Swap out Michelle Williams and Andrea Riseborough for Viola Davis in The Woman King and Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Colin says: Swap out Cate Blanchett and Andrea Riseborough for Tang Wei in Decision to Leave and Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Courtney says: Swap out Ana de Armas for Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Emma says: Swap out Ana de Armas and Michelle Williams for Viola Davis in The Woman King and Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Pat says: Kick Ana de Armas to the curb and give that spot to Emma Thompson in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande and the same goes with Michelle Williams for Thandiwe Newton in God’s Country

Best Actor

The nominees: Austin Butler, Elvis; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; Bill Nighy, Living

It’s another tight showdown! We’re split between upstart Austin Butler and comeback kid Brendan Fraser. Butler, on one hand, is completely transformative as Elvis. The Academy loves a musical biopic, as noted in Renée Zellweger’s well-deserved win for Judy and Rami Malek’s win for Bohemian Rhapsody, so Butler’s work is exactly the kind of thing that voters desire. With eight nominations, too, including Best Picture, compared to a measly three nominations for The Whale, there’s presumably more love across the board for Butler’s film. On the other hand, Fraser’s performance itself has been the talking point of The Whale and his emotional SAG victory was well-timed for Oscar voting. People can debate how high the bar was for this to be a “career performance,” but either way, it’s now or never for Fraser, whereas Butler’s career is just beginning. Colin Farrell is the wild card.

 

Will win

Austin Butler, Elvis: Bil, Daniel, Jason, Marc, Pat, Shawn, Victor

Brendan Fraser, The Whale: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma

 

Should win

Austin Butler, Elvis: Jason, Shawn

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin: Barbara, Colin, Dakota, Daniel, Emma

Brendan Fraser, The Whale: Marc

Paul Mescal, Aftersun: Courtney, Deirdre, Victor

Bill Nighy: Bil, Pat

 

This for That

Victor says: Boot Brendan Fraser for Song Kang Ho in Broker

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Chaos reigns in this race. Best Supporting Actress is the toughest call of the night. Angela Bassett had the heat after winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards. Just when it seemed like she’d “do the thing,” Kerry Condon won at the BAFTAs and Jamie Lee Curtis scored at the SAGs. Curtis also has the same “overdue” narrative as Bassett and they’re both basically in Marvel movies, facing the same fans and biases. One can say that Bassett takes a conventional superhero role and attacks it, while Curtis gives a laugh-out-loud funny transformation of a character who may be weaker on script. (Everything in that part, she brings to it.) On the other hand, Curtis is competing against her co-star Stephanie Hsu who many fans find to be the emotional heart of the film. Then there’s Condon, a voice of reason among bickering men and one of seemingly few chances to recognize a film that’s widely loved. And if Hong Chau’s ever wanted to make a move, now’s the time!

 

Will win

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Bil, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Victor

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin: Dakota, Shawn

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Jason, Marc, Pat

Should win

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Shawn

Hong Chau, The Whale: Barbara

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin: Bil, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Jason

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere: Pat

Stephanie Hsu: Colin, Courtney, Daniel, Marc, Victor

 

This for That

Barbara says: Swap out Jamie Lee Curtis and Kerry Condon for Jesse Buckley and Rooney Mara in Women Talking – that film deserved a lot more love for its performances

Bil says: Swap out Stephanie Hsu for Dolly De Leon in Triangle of Sadness

Pat says: Swap out Stephanie Hsu for Sheila McCarthy in Women Talking

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Bryan Tyree Harry, Causeway; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Insiherin; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Comeback kid Ke Huy Quan is one of the safest bets of the night. One of the Banshees boys could surprise here, as Keoghan did at the BAFTAs. If Quan loses, though, you know Everything Everywhere is in trouble.

 

Will win

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin: Victor

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Marc, Pat, Shawn

 

Should win

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin: Pat

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Marc, Shawn, Victor

 

This for That

Pat says: Swap out Bryan Hyree Harry in Cauzzzeway for Luke Macfarlane in Bros and Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans for David Lynch in The Fabelmans

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

“Academy Award winner Sarah Polley” sounds nice, doesn’t it? Polley found herself in the odd annual trend where support for a film crystallizes in a single category. No matter how Women Talking did in most awards ceremonies, it usually scored for its screenplay. Glass Onion is a wild card for Rian Johnson’s extremely clever and ridiculously entertaining script, while All Quiet has a little heat, and there’s huge support for Kazuo Kishiguro’s take on Ikiru, Living.

 

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Bil, Colin, Deirdre

Glass Onion: Emma, Jason, Victor

Women Talking: Barbara, Courtney, Dakota, Daniel, Marc, Pat, Shawn

 

Should win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Dakota, Shawn

Glass Onion: Daniel

Living: Bil

Top Gun: Maverick: Victor

Women Talking: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Marc, Pat

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Here’s one category to really watch. If Everything Everywhere wins here, as it very well could, then Best Picture is pretty much sewn up. But Banshees has to win something, right? There’s something novel about tales of women talking and men talking winning the adapted and original screenplay categories, respectively, and Banshees’ funny, highly literate dialogue has, like Polley’s film, often been recognized by the industry. It won the Globe and the BAFTA over Everything Everywhere, but wasn’t eligible for the showdown at the Writers’ Guild. Meanwhile, Fabelmans could win here by the same logic, but unlike Banshees, the writing has generally been praised after the filmmaking.

 

Will win

The Banshees of Inisherin: Courtney, Emma, Pat, Victor

Everything Everywhere: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Dakota, Jason, Marc, Shawn

Tár: Daniel, Deirdre

 

Should win

The Banshees of Inisherin: Emma

Everything Everywhere: Barbara, Colin, Dakota, Daniel, Deirdre, Shawn, Victor

Tár: Bil, Courtney, Marc, Pat

Triangle of Sadness: Jason

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees: All that Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny

 

I think it’s a toss-up between Fire of Love and Navalny, but my love for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed tempts me to predict it. I have a theory, though, that the doc crowd likes to share the wealth when it comes to awards. Docs by previous Oscar winners miss out on nominations as frequently as the year’s most commercially successful docs do. (Especially if they’re directed by Brett Morgen, it seems.) The fact that Poitras even landed a nomination when previous winners Morgan Neville and Jimmy Chin/Chai Vasarhelyi were surprise snubs for Won’t You Be My Neighbor? and The Rescue, respectively, is impressive. No director has won a second Oscar in this category since Barbara Kopple for 1990’s American Dream, but if anyone should repeat that feat, it’s Poitras.

On the other hand, Daniel Roher basically made a Poitras film, and a great one at that, with Navalny and his film has the heat on the home stretch. After winning both the BAFTA and the Producers Guild Award, Navalny is holding up well after being the overall audience favourite at Sundance last year. Plus, there’s the opportunity to recognize the man himself, Alexei Navalny, by awarding the film that bears his name.

 

Will win

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Colin, Victor

Fire of Love: Shawn

Navalny: Barbara, Bil, Dakota, Emma, Jason, Marc, Pat, Shawn

 

Should win

All that Breathes: Dakota, Victor

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Emma, Marc, Pat

Fire of Love: Bil, Shawn

Navalny: Jason

 

This for that

Barbara says: there is such an abundance of choices for Best Documentary Feature that I wish they expanded the number of films eligible

Marc says: Swap out A House Made of Splinters for Moonage Daydream

Best International Feature

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany); Argentina 1985 (Argentina); Close (Belgium); EO (Poland); The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Well, with additional nominations including Best Picture, All Quiet on the Western Front may be the easiest call of the night.

 

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Jason, Marc, Shawn, Pat, Victor

 

Should win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Jason, Marc, Shawn, Victor

Close: Barbara, Bil, Pat

EO: Colin

 

This for That

Barbara says: Swap out EO for Decision to Leave

Colin says: Swap out All Quiet on the Western Front for Decision to Leave

Courtney says: Swap out EO for Decision to Leave

Best Animated Feature

The nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes on, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red

Guillermo del Toro continues to enchant the crowd with his signature takes on fantasy. His re-imagining of Pinocchio edged out stiff competition this year and arguably has an edge given that it has the most sophisticated animated of the bunch. On the other hand, Marcel the Shell breaks ground as a mockumentary with a big heart, while Puss in Boots and Turning Reds are huge hits that every voter with kids has probably seen multiple times.

 

Will win

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Marc, Shawn, Pat, Victor

Puss in Boots: Bil

 

Should win

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio: Barbara, Colin, Dakota, Daniel, Jason, Shawn, Victor

Marcel the Shell with Shoes on: Bil, Courtney, Deirdre, Emma, Pat

Puss in Boots: Marc

Best Cinematography

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front; Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths; Elvis; Empire of Light; Tár

Mandy Walker could make history as the first woman to win Best Cinematography. Her dazzling eye is a signature of Baz Luhrmann’s body of work and does a lot of heavy lifting in Elvis. All Quiet is a technical and artistic marvel, though, and Berger’s direction really lets the camerawork shine, whereas Walker’s work may be overwhelmed by the editing in Elvis. Bardo and Empire of Light look fantastic, but the films themselves carry lots of baggage. Tár meanwhile, has brilliantly cold and controlled cinematography. It’s an inspired nomination, but only really “showy” upon repeat viewings.

 

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Shawn

Elvis: Jason, Marc, Pat, Victor

 

Should win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Barbara, Daniel, Emma, Shawn, Victor

Bardo: Colin, Dakota

Elvis: Courtney, Jason

Empire of Light: Bil

Tár: Deirdre, Marc, Pat

 

This for That

Barbara says: Swap out Bardo for Aftersun

Best Production Design

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans

How does one even compare these contenders? From the trenches of All Quiet to the new world of Avatar to the Tinseltown trappings of Babylon and the year-spanning work of Elvis and The Fabelmans, this one may all come down to matters of taste. The first Avatar won here, which indicates that voters can distinguish a set from CGI, while All Quiet and Babylon get their wow factors upon first glance.

 

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Bil, Colin

Avatar: The Way of Water: Courtney

Babylon: Barbara, Dakota, Emma, Marc, Pat, Shawn, Victor

Elvis: Jason

 

Should win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Bil, Emma

Avatar: The Way of Water: Victor

Babylon: Barbara, Dakota, Marc, Pat, Shawn

Elvis: Courtney, Jason

Best Costumes

The nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Catherine Martin seems poised to win her fifth Oscar here thanks to Elvis. Or her sixth if she also wins for production design. Mrs. Baz Luhrmann (really, we should call him Mr. Catherine Martin at this point) has stiff competition from Black Panther winner Ruth Carter, whose afro-futurist work in Wakanda Forever is a feat of imagination. Everything Everywhere again has the “most” costumes, while Babylon has richly detailed period work, yet no film sees costumes play such a dramatic role as they do in Mrs. Harris.

 

Will win

Babylon: Colin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Bil, Deirdre, Emma, Victor

Elvis: Barbara, Dakota, Jason, Marc, Pat

Everything Everywhere: Courtney, Shawn

 

Should win

Babylon: Pat

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Barbara, Courtney, Emma, Shawn, Victor

Elvis: Dakota, Jason

Everything Everywhere: Colin

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris: Bil, Marc

Best Music – Original Score

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

Another toss up! Babylon’s Justin Hurwitz seemed like a shoo-in, and a default chance to recognize Babylon for its dazzling wall-to-wall score, but he basically asked people to stop voting for him when he accepted the Golden Globe. All Quiet has an imposing score, if a repetitive one, while Banshees’ Carter Burwell has never been recognized in a career full of subtle work. Lastly, The Fabelmans presents the penultimate chance to honour industry favourite John Williams, unless they save it for his final work in the next Indiana Jones flick.

 

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Barbara

Babylon: Dakota, Daniel, Marc, Pat, Shawn, Victor

The Banshees of Inisherin: Colin

Everything Everywhere: Deirdre

The Fabelmans: Bil, Courtney, Emma, Jason

 

Should win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Barbara

Babylon: Dakota, Daniel, Marc, Pat, Shawn, Victor

The Banshees of Insiherin: Bil, Colin, Emma

Everything Everywhere All at Once: Courtney

The Fabelmans: Jason

Best Music – Original Song

The nominees: Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman; “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick; “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; “Naatu Naatu” from RRR; “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

“Naatu Naatu” is a cultural phenomenon, but so was “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman and we know how that went. Rihanna has some heat for “Lift Me Up” after her Super Bowl performance, and even I’m not pulling for Diane Warren (“Applause”) on this one.

 

Will win

“Hold My Hand”: Jason, Victor

“Lift Me Up”: Bil, Deirdre, Emma

“Naatu Naatu”: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Daniel, Marc, Pat, Shawn

 

Should win

“Hold My Hand”: Pat

“Lift Me Up”: Bil, Emma, Victor

“Naatu Naatu”: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Daniel, Deirdre, Marc, Shawn

“This Is a Life”: Jason

 

This for That

Pat says: Swap out “This Is a Life,” and “Naatu Naatu” for “Love Is Not Love” from Bros and “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise

Best Sound

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

Listen up! Most years see the Oscars pair Best Sound with Best Film Editing. Only Elvis and Top Gun overlap, and they present the two genres that often win here: musicals and action flicks. Top Gun has to win something, right?

 

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Bil, Colin, Jason

Avatar: The Way of Water: Courtney

Elvis: Victor

Top Gun: Maverick: Barbara, Dakota, Emma, Marc, Pat, Shawn

Should win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Barbara, Bil

Avatar: The Way of Water: Courtney

The Batman: Colin

Top Gun: Maverick: Dakota, Emma, Jason, Marc, Pat, Shawn, Victor

Best Film Editing

The nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Again for Everything Everywhere, it’s a case of having the “most” editing. The feature-length TikTok video might be too OCD for some viewers, but there’s also a precision to the work that can’t be denied. Then there’s there bravura whooshing of Top Gun. It’s a tough call, but the Academy usually goes for action flicks here (see: Dune, Ford v. Ferrari, Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge), and there’s the Best Sound factor in its favour to merge the technical prizes.

 

Will win

Elvis: Victor

Everything Everywhere All at Once: Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Jason, Marc, Shawn

Top Gun: Maverick: Barbara, Emma, Pat

 

Should win

Elvis: Shawn

Everything Everywhere All at Once: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma

Tár: Bil, Marc

Top Gun: Maverick: Jason, Victor, Pat

Best Visual Effects

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick

Even people who hate Avatar have gotta admit that its visual effects are off the hook. Another (presumably) safe bet.

 

Will win

Avatar: The Way of Water: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Jason, Marc, Pat, Shawn, Victor

Top Gun: Maverick: Emma

 

Should win

Avatar: The Way of Water: Bil, Courtney, Colin, Dakota, Marc, Pat, Shawn, Victor

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Barbara

Top Gun: Maverick: Deirdre, Emma, Jason

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale

It’s the mud of All Quiet versus the fat suit of The Whale! The Elvis wigs could be a factor here, depending upon how much voters weigh makeup versus hair. Black Panther is a tough call here, but the first one missed this category despite showier work.

 

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Bil, Courtney

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Jason

Elvis: Barbara, Emma, Marc, Pat

The Whale: Colin, Dakota, Shawn, Victor

 

Should win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Bil, Pat

The Batman: Colin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Barbara, Courtney, Emma, Victor

Elvis: Dakota, Deirdre, Jason, Shawn

The Whale: Marc

 

This for That

Courtney says: Swap out The Batman for The Woman King

Best Documentary Short

The nominees: The Elephant Whisperers, Haulout, How Do You Measure a Year?, The Martha Mitchell Effect, Stranger at the Gate

The Elephant Whisperers has the Netflix moolah behind it, accessible subject matter, solid filmmaking, and very cute elephants. But Stranger at the Gate has Malala behind it.

 

Will win

The Elephant Whisperers: Colin, Dakota, Pat, Shawn, Victor

Haulout: Jason

Stranger at the Gate: Bil

 

Should win

The Elephant Whisperers: Dakota, Shawn, Victor

How Do You Measure a Year?: Colin

The Martha Mitchell Effect: Jason, Pat

Best Animated Short

The nominees: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse; The Flying Sailor; Ice Merchants; My Year of Dicks; An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

We’re rooting for the NFB’s The Flying Sailor here, but Apple’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse is undeniably the frontrunner. Meanwhile, the novel titles for My Year of Dicks and An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It would look great on a statuette, wouldn’t they?

 

Will win

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse: Bil, Dakota, Marc, Pat, Victor

The Flying Sailor: Courtney

My Year of Dicks: Jason

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It: Colin, Shawn

 

Should win

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse: Victor

The Flying Sailor: Bil, Courtney, Pat

My Year of Dicks: Jason, Marc

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It: Dakota, Shawn

Best Live Action Short

The nominees: An Irish Goodbye, Ivalu, Night Ride, Le Pupille, The Red Suitcase

A toughie! An Irish Goodbye seems to be the favourite and is very The Banshees of Inisherin. But Le Pupille has the star power of Disney, Alfonso Cuarón, and Alice Rohrwacher behind it.

 

Will win

An Irish Goodbye: Colin, Dakota, Pat, Victor

Ivalu: Jason

Night Ride: Bil

Le Pupille: Courtney, Shawn

 

Should win

An Irish Goodbye: Dakota, Victor

Ivalu: Jason

Le Pupille: Bil, Courtney, Pat, Shawn

Who are you rooting for most on Oscar night?

Bil: The great Cate!

Colin: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Courtney: Ke Huy Quan

Dakota: Colin Farrell and Sarah Polley

Deirdre: Ke Huy Quan!

Emma: Colin Farrell for Best Actor (though methinks it’s a losing battle)

Marc: The Daniels in all categories

Pat: Sarah Polley, Laura Poitras, and The Flying Sailor

Shawn: Austin Butler, Angela Bassett, Ke Huy Quan, The Daniels, Michelle Yeoh

Victor: Michelle Yeoh

 

Follow along at @ThatShelf on Oscar night!



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