Oscar Predictions and Picks: Who Will and Should Win in this Ugly, Unpredictable Season

If you think this year’s awards season has been a grind, do I have some Oscar predictions for you: Next year could be even harder. The ballots aren’t cast and the first screener for next season is already out with Flight Risk getting the FYC push this week. Oof!

This year seemed to be off to a slow start, as the summer yielded neither Barbie nor Oppenheimer, while the early half didn’t have a Past Lives. Well, it did have a Challengers, which should have been a contender, but Oscar voters apparently don’t like hot people and tennis. Foul!

But the latter half of 2024 more than made up for the crazy. This awards season was especially brutal. And extremely petty.

There were nontroversies galore with Anora’s Mikey Madison getting dragged for declining an intimacy coordinator that was offered to her. Then it arose that Fernanda Torres did blackface 20 years ago and that AI smoothed Adrien Brody’s accent in The Brutalist. Meryl Streep would never!

Then came the takedown of the century with years’ old problematic tweets by Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón unearthed, taken out of context, auto-translated via Google, and posted without giving her the chance to respond. I won’t comment on that no-win situation due to local politics, but without defending those tweets, this is exactly why I had to be talked out of quitting the industry earlier this season, and somewhat regret being convinced.

But that’s a matter we’re not allowed to talk about because the Gascóntroversy made a controversial film radioactive just as it was gaining momentum. But after industry voters demonstrated their admiration for a film, will they realistically penalise colleagues as guilt-by-proxy based on years’ old social media posts by the star of their film, some of which were made during a period in which she herself admits she was suicidal and not in the best state of mind, and for which she repeatedly and profusely apologized? Voters won’t support the film publicly, but many of them will inevitably have to do a double-take in today’s cancel culture climate.

Karla Sofía Gascón was, at best, a dark horse to win Best Actress, so the impact of the situation overall may be more of an award season villain narrative than actual across-the-board damage. The love-it-or-hate-it Emilia Pérez was never going to win Best Picture on the preferential ballot, either, and was likely to have a pretty bad wins-to-nominations ratio based on its polarizing nature. Some of the industry’s more reliable sources, like Anne Thompson, are saying that the impact is exaggerated, and a recent piece in The Guardian noted that some peers feel the backlash was excessive, saying the industry “chucked [Gascón] under the bus – then reversed it back over her body.” The increasingly international voting body will be more forgiving than the North American bloc. The film still won the BAFTA for International Feature.

What the controversy did, however, was neutralize supporters of Emilia Pérez so that it became too radioactive to champion. The climate was already vile enough that fans had to cover their mouths when saying they liked the film. This season’s been like sailing on the Titanic for Emilia Pérez fans: you can either ride the stern until the bitter end, or you can bail and hit the propeller on the way down. And the onlookers in half-full life boats are inevitably cheering as they drown.

And with that note of optimism, here are the Oscar predictions and picks for what looks to be an unpredictable night. All contributors at That Shelf were invited to submit their Oscar predictions and personal picks. Responses were submitted Dakota Arsenault, Emma Badame, Colin Biggs, Pat Mullen, Shawn Peer, Adam Schoales, Courtney Small, and Rachel West.

Best Picture

The nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

It will be a nail-biter until the very end. There’s a very real chance that, for the first time since the 1935 Oscars, a film could win Best Picture and nothing else. That happened with Anora at the kooky Critics Choice Awards, and it’s very possible that it will repeat since Sean Baker’s film seems the likeliest to triumph with the preferential ballot, based on its win at the Producers’ Guild, which uses the same method. It has that edgy, but not too edgy, and generally well-regarded character that the ballot favours as films seek 50% of the vote plus one to win. More of often than not, years of the preferential ballot have yielded relatively low hauls for Best Picture winners. Anora faces a toss-up or leads in close categories like director, screenplay, actress, and editing, so Anora could win anywhere from one to five Oscars. Otherwise, Best Picture could ironically be the papal thriller Conclave, which won the BAFTA and SAG Ensemble, and possibly mirror its characters’ quest to elect a candidate after multiple ballots. One has to have a sense of humour while seeing how much this season played out like the Vatican backstabbing. The Brutalist and Emilie Pérez won the Globes, but they’re likely too divisive to amass a majority, although The Brutalist will presumably net enough number one votes to hang in there for several rounds and could surprise here.

Will win

Anora: Colin, Courtney, Emma, Pat, Shawn

The Brutalist: Dakota

Conclave: Adam, Rachel

Should win

In the spirit of the preferential ballot, we asked all respondents to rank their choices from #1 (best) to 10. Based on our limited pool, there was white smoke for Conclave on the second ballot as only it and Nickel Boys survived the first round.

Adam: abstained

Colin: 1) Anora 2) Dune: Part Two 3) The Brutalist 4) A Complete Unknown 5) Conclave 6) Nickel Boys 7) I’m Still Here 8) Wicked 9) The Substance 10) Emilia Pérez

Courtney: 1) Nickel Boys 2) Anora 3) The Brutalist 4) Dune: Part Two 5) I’m Still Here 6) Conclave 7) Wicked 8) Emilia Pérez 9) The Substance 10) A Complete Unknown

Dakota: 1) Conclave 2) Dune: Part Two 3) The Substance 4) A Complete Unknown 5) Anora 6) Wicked 7) I’m Still Here 8) The Brutalist 9) Nickel Boys 10) Emilia Pérez

Emma: 1) Nickel Boys 2) Conclave 3) Dune: Part Two 4) Anora 5) I’m Still Here 6) The Brutalist 7) A Complete Unknown 8) Wicked 9) Emilia Pérez 10) The Substance

Pat: 1) Emilia Pérez 2) Dune: Part Two 3) Conclave 4) Wicked 5) Nickel Boys 6) The Substance 8) The Brutalist 9) Anora 10) A Complete Unknown

Rachel: 1) Conclave 2) The Brutalist 3) I’m Still Here 4) Dune: Part Two 5) Nickel Boys 6) Anora 7) The Substance 8) Wicked 9) A Complete Unknown

Shawn: 1) The Brutalist 2) Conclave 3) Wicked 4) Dune: Part Two 5) I’m Still Here 6) The Substance 7) Emilia Pérez 8) Anora 9) A Complete Unknown

Best Director

The Nominees: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

It’s a big toss-up here for Baker and Corbet. Baker won the Directors’ Guild, but Corbet triumphed at the Globes and BAFTAs. But voters could just as easily split Best Picture and Director. It’s a question of scale. Do voters prefer intimacy or epics?

Will win

Sean Baker: Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Pat, Shawn

Brady Corbet: Adam, Emma, Rachel

Should win

Jacques Audiard: Pat

Sean Baker: Adam, Colin, Courtney

Brady Corbet: Courtney, Emma, Rachel, Shawn

Coralie Fargeat: Dakota

Best Actress

The nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance; Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

What a gong show. Karla’s obviously out, and she wasn’t going to win, anyway. The bigger question is: If her votes migrated elsewhere, where did they go? Maybe to Wicked as a musical with a queer hook, or to The Substance given its audacious camp? It’s neck and neck between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison, ironically mirroring The Substance’s play of the veteran and the ingénue. One could say, though, that Best Actress was won on Golden Globes night when Moore gave the speech of the evening—one of those perfectly delivered reflections that captured the arc of her career and what a win means for her. It was one hell of a pitch, arguably one of the best awards speeches in recent memory. At the same time, Fernanda Torres scored a huge upset in the dramatic category and people took notice, acknowledging her powerhouse performance, as well as the film in Best Picture. That means any responsible voter surely saw it. Moore, Madison, and Torres have yet to be pitted against one another in a major race this season. While Torres missed key nominations at the BAFTAs (where Madison won) and SAG Awards (where Moore won), there’s one fairly recent precedent in her favour: before winning the Oscar after missing both those precursors, Regina King won the Globe for If Beale Street Could Talk, although voting bodies in both groups have grown considerably since 2019.

Will win

Demi Moore: Adam, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Pat, Rachel

Mikey Madison: Shawn

Should win

Karla Sofía Gascón: Pat (sorry)

Demi Moore: Dakota, Rachel, Shawn

Mikey Madison: Adam, Colin

Fernanda Torres: Courtney, Emma

Best Actor

The nominees: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Adrien Brody seemed to have his second Oscar sewn up until Timothée pulled a fast one at the SAG Awards. However, SAG skews younger, given that it’s a full union whereas the Academy has an invitation-based membership that inevitably brings people in later in their careers, or at least after enough notable achievements. The Brutalist clearly didn’t play well with the actors, as Brody’s co-stars all missed out, and voters maybe didn’t make it through the four-hour epic. If the first half of The Brutalist didn’t put them to sleep, Felicity Jones’ performance surely did. But Chalamet’s win here is probably more red herring than predictive, unless it reflects the pretty late surge for A Complete Unknown, which got to voters last.

Will win

Adrien Brody: Dakota, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Timothée Chalamet: Courtney

Colman Domingo: Adam

Ralph Fiennes: Colin

Should win

Adrien Brody: Colin, Courtney, Shawn

Colman Domingo: Adam, Dakota,

Ralph Fiennes: Emma, Pat, Rachel

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: Monica Barbara, A Complete Unknown; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Isabella Rossellini; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

One of the surest things of the night is the pair of supporting categories. Saldaña weathered the Gascóntroversy like a pro, and no realistic competitor emerged amid the bloodbath, even though Isabella Rossellini was out there posting about puppies on Instagram the whole time.

Will win

Zoe Saldaña: Everyone

Should win

Monica Barbara: Colin, Courtney, Dakota

Ariana Grande: Adam, Shawn

Isabella Rossellini: Emma

Zoe Saldaña: Pat, Rachel

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremey Strong, The Apprentice

Ditto Saldaña. Culkin’s swept the season, even if this performance lacks the surprise factor of Saldaña’s showstopper. Sure, he was great doing more of the same as he turn on Succession, and isn’t any less great here for drawing upon Roman Roy.

Will win

Kieran Culkin: Everyone

Should win

Yura Borisov: Courtney, Dakota

Kieran Culkin: Colin, Emma, Rachel, Shawn

Jeremy Strong: Adam, Pat

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Conclave swept the field, winning pretty much every major prize in this category when it was eligible. It wasn’t eligible at the Writers’ Guild Awards though, where Nickel Boys triumphed amid its belated momentum. There’s a big question of adaptation here: Conclave offers a dialogue-driven, highly quotable feat thanks to all those petty bitches in the Vatican. It breezes through a men-talking-in-hours premise that proves absolutely riveting. Nickel Boys, alternatively, brings a very difficult book to the screen with singular vision, albeit more so through very unique visual language. The cinematography and direction are arguably the star there, but there’s also nowhere else to reward the film, really.

Will win

Conclave: Colin, Dakota, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Nickel Boys: Courtney

Sing Sing: Adam

Should win

Conclave: Dakota, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Nickel Boys: Colin, Courtney, Emma

Sing Sing: Adam

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

Here’s another battleground in the lead up to Best Picture. A win for Anora or The Brutalist will bode well for the big prize. And The Substance may be the most wildly original work and could prevail here in the way that, say, Get Out did a few years ago. But the wild card is A Real Pain, which has generally duked it out with Anora most of the season. It lacks a Best Picture nomination, though, and no script has won in the category without a Best Picture nomination since 2004’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. (And you have to go back to 1998’s Gods and Monsters in the adapted category.) But this season is such a gong show that anything could happen.

Will win

Anora: Adam, Colin, Courtney, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

The Substance: Dakota

Should win

Anora: Adam, Colin

The Brutalist: Courtney, Shawn

A Real Pain: Rachel

The Substance: Dakota, Emma, Pat

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees: Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’État, Sugarcane

Porcelain War may hold one of the better Oscar stats heading into the room, too. Five of the six previous winners were Sundance winners, so the film’s Grand Jury Prize win (for U.S. Documentary) inevitably speaks to its reach on the festival circuit and the likelihood that voters—in the documentary branch, at least—sought it out. The film arguably has been gaining momentum on the circuit, too. It won the Directors Guild of America Award and was the only one of the Oscar finalists to be nominated at the Producers Guild Awards and American Society of Cinematographer Awards, which indicates that it’s held in high esteem across several branches—something that’s key to winning the long game. The doc vote has generally favoured films with topic issues in recent years, so a story the invasion of Ukraine could be compelling, but so too is No Other Land’s portrait of forcible home evictions and war crimes in Palestine. No Other Land also hit some reliable precursors by taking top honours at the IDA Awards, CinemaEye Honours, Spirit Awards, Gotham Awards, and European Film Awards, in addition to probably the healthiest festival run of the bunch. Beyond the topicality, it’s just a remarkable feat of filmmaking, as well as a hopeful one in the collaboration that extends across borders between Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers. Few films have been able to sustain such active year-long conversation as No Other Land has, which reminds me a lot of Parasite’s Best Picture win: do not discount word of mouth discussion among industry peers.

Will win

No Other Land: Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Pat, Shawn

Porcelain War: Rachel

Soundtrack to a Coup d’État: Adam

Should win

Black Box Diaries: Dakota

No Other Land: Courtney, Emma, Pat, Shawn

Porcelain War: Rachel

Best International Feature

The nominees: I’m Still Here (Brazil), The Girl with the Needle (Denmark), Emilia Pérez (France), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany), Flow (Latvia)

Here’s a tough one. History will be made this year because, for the first time ever, a Best International Feature nominee that’s also up for Best Picture will lose this category. That’s because it’s a two-way race between Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here, which are nominated in both categories. Conventional wisdom says that Emilia Pérez should have this one in a cakewalk with 13 nominations compared to three for I’m Still Here. As said previously, the controversy was all about neutralizing supporters of Emilia Pérez so that it became too radioactive to champion and therefore couldn’t really amass new fans, whereas I’m Still Here got a huge boost after the Golden Globes, drew fresh eyes, and added to the conversation, although the totally unhinged presence of Torres’ online fanbase makes its social media sensation overstated. It all depends what margin Emilia Pérez had going in and how much I’m Still Here was able to close in on that.

Will win

Emilia Pérez: Emma, Pat

I’m Still Here: Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Rachel, Shawn

The Seed of the Sacred Fig: Adam

Should win

Emilia Pérez: Pat

I’m Still Here: Courtney, Emma, Rachel, Shawn

The Seed of the Sacred Fig: Colin, Dakota

Best Animated Feature

The nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Best Animated Feature poses a sort of existential question to the industry: Do you reward the major studio work with major resources at its disposal, or the independent international film made with readily available tools? Both The Wild Robot and Flow are extraordinary films and make this one a coin toss within the Oscar predictions. This category rarely honours independent animation unless the creator’s name is Hayao Miyazaki though.

Will win

Flow: Courtney, Rachel

Wallace and Gromit: Adam

The Wild Robot: Colin, Dakota, Emma, Pat, Shawn

Should win

Flow: Adam, Courtney, Emma, Pat, Rachel

Inside Out 2: Shawn

Memoir of a Snail: Dakota

The Wild Robot: Colin

Best Cinematography

The nominees: The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

That 70mm Vista Vision of The Brutalist sure does sing! Dune: Part Two could repeat here, although there’s a sense of fatigue comparable to the second Lord of the Rings movie: people aren’t really rushing to honour work they awarded last time, even if it’s arguably better in Part Two. The real wild card here is veteran cinematographer Edward Lachman, who has never won but pulled a surprise coup at the American Society of Cinematographers for his sumptuous work in Maria, although Pablo Larraín’s previous films in the trilogy (Jackie, Spencer) didn’t play all that well with voters.

Will win

The Brutalist: Adam, Colin, Dakota, Emma, Pat, Shawn

Dune: Part Two: Courtney

Nosferatu: Rachel

Should win

The Brutalist: Adam, Colin, Courtney, Shawn

Dune: Part Two: Dakota, Emma

Maria: Pat

Nosferatu: Rachel

Best Production Design

The nominees: The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

Here’s another tricky one. The Oscars tend to pair Best Production Design and Best Costume Design, so the smart move may be to call both categories for Wicked or Nosferatu—or Conclave if genre movies split the vote. But Dune builds a complete world, while the production design of The Brutalist offers far more than settings: Toth’s designs are characters. The Van Buren Centre for Kids Who Can’t Read Good (or whatever it’s really called) is an astonishing feat as the gradual building of the structure, each piece and detail, falls into place over several hours. Wicked has the immediate wow factor with its moving parts and tactile creation of Oz. Again, it’s a question of choice: period detail versus fantasy.

Will win

The Brutalist: Adam

Dune: Part Two: Colin, Courtney, Dakota

Wicked: Emma, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Should win

The Brutalist: Pat

Dune: Part Two: Adam, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Shawn

Nosferatu: Emma, Rachel

Best Costume Design

The nominees: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Cross out A Complete Unknown and Gladiator II. Nosferatu’s costumes are fine, but not especially showy compared to Wicked on the genre front. Wicked recalls Black Panther’s ingenuity and fashion sense. Conclave, meanwhile, has detail and uniformity. Both films tell a lot of story with their designs.

Will win

Conclave: Colin

Nosferatu: Courtney

Wicked: Adam, Dakota, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Should win

Conclave: Dakota

Nosferatu: Colin, Shawn

Wicked: Adam, Courtney, Emma, Pat, Rachel

Best Music (Original Score)

The nominees: The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

Justice for Challengers! The intensity of Conclave could win here, as could the euphoric drive of The Wild Robot. But there’s a lot of support for The Brutalist, particularly the epic overtures.

Will win

The Brutalist: Adam, Dakota, Rachel, Shawn

Conclave: Courtney, Pat

Emilia Pérez: Emma

Wicked: Colin

Should win

The Brutalist: Courtney, Dakota, Rachel, Shawn

Conclave: Adam, Emma, Pat

Best Music (Original Song)

The nominees: “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

“El Mal” should win this race pretty decisively. It’s a stronger moment cinematically than “Mi Camino” in Emilia Pérez, and its perceived rivals this season, like “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, and “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper all missed out to arguably weaker choices. “Never Too Late” probably won’t win Elton John a third Oscar for a documentary that had virtually no presence in the conversation—it’s a big surprise that this song beat out Will & Harper—while Sing Sing’s lovely ballad closes out the credits nicely, but isn’t especially memorable. Diane Warren’s signature power ballad “The Journey” reflects one of the stronger songs for which she’s been nominated lately, but it’s hard to argue that the music from Emilia Pérez will lose when the film itself has the most nominations performed well across the board. It’s a way to honour composers Camille and Clément Ducol, and Jacques Audiard, who is nominated with them.

Will win

“Never Too Late”: Adam, Colin, Emma

“El Mal”: Courtney, Dakota, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Should win

“El Mal”: Courtney, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

“Like a Bird”: Dakota

Best Sound

The nominees: A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

Dune has got to win something, right?

Will win

Dune: Part Two: Colin, Courtney, Emma, Pat, Rachel

Wicked: Adam, Dakota, Shawn

Should win

Dune: Part Two: Adam, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Rachel, Shawn

Emilia Pérez: Pat

Best Film Editing

The nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

Here’s a tricky one. The same film traditionally wins for both sound and editing, but only Emilia Pérez and Wicked overlap, so that’s one of the old trends that can probably be put to bed after Top Gun: Maverick and The Zone of Interest won here the last two years without an editing win. Baker’s punchy work in Anora could add to his tally, while the seamless finesse of Conclave keeps a talky film lively. The Brutalist’s handsome design may depend upon how many voters fault an editor for a film’s running time. How did Challengers miss here?

Will win

Anora: Adam

The Brutalist: Colin, Emma

Conclave: Courtney, Dakota, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Should win

Anora: Adam

The Brutalist: Colin, Courtney, Shawn

Conclave: Dakota, Emma, Rachel

Emilia Pérez: Pat

Best Visual Effects

The nominees: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

Dune, glorious Dune! But have a good laugh if Better Man beats Planet of the Apes after all the times that franchise came up short.

Will win

Better Man: Courtney

Dune: Part Two: Adam, Colin, Dakota, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Should win

Better Man: Adam

Dune: Part Two: Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

The nominees: A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

A Different Man and Emilia Pérez essentially have nominations for impressive work on one character. Nosferatu and Wicked could probably have won any other year, but The Substance surely has to take this one for its full-throttled transformations of Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley in the body horror show. Monstro Elisasue for the win!

Will win

A Different Man: Adam, Colin

The Substance: Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Pat, Shawn

Wicked: Rachel

Should win

A Different Man: Adam, Colin, Emma

Nosferatu: Courtney

The Substance: Dakota, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Best Documentary Short Film

The nominees: Death By Numbers; Instruments of a Beating Heart; I Am Ready, Warden; Incident; The Only Girl in the Orchestra

A tough call! Voters will opt for death penalty doc I Am Ready, Warden since it tackles a very tough subject in an accessible way. The short doc winners across the last decade or two have generally all been interview-heavy and/or character-driven vérité works with a topical issue, so Warden reflects the kind of film that usually comes out on top in this category. Incident is extraordinary, but voters rarely honor experimental work, while Girl is a touching film in a heavy slate that could stand out with its heartstrings.

Will win

I Am Ready, Warden: Adam, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

The Only Girl in the Orchestra: Emma

Should win

I Am Ready, Warden: Colin, Shawn

Incident: Dakota, Pat

Best Animated Short Film

The nominees: Beautiful Men, In the Shadow of Cyprus, Magic Candies, Wander to Wonder, Yuck!

No two films are alike here. This one all comes down to a question of taste and technique.

Will win

Beautiful Men: Emma, Shawn

In the Shadow of Cyprus: Adam, Colin, Pat

Magic Candies: Rachel

Wander to Wonder: Courtney, Dakota

Should win

Beautiful Men: Shawn

Magic Candies: Dakota

Yuck!: Pat

Best Live Action Film

The nominees: Anuja, A Lien, I’m Not a Robot, The Last Ranger, The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Someone once told me that they often win their Oscar pool by betting on the worst short in this category. It’s become the most reliable advice I’ve ever received on the predictions front. If that’s the case, it should be a runaway for A Lien and its ham-fisted politics over the quietly political The Man Who Couldn’t Stay Silent, which won the Palme d’Or and European Film Award.