Awards Shelf – Oscar Predictions: Will Win/Should Win


There was a funny trend to the Oscar predictions submitted by the team at That Shelf. Several writers commented that this year had the most predictable set of winners in recent memory, but then went on to submit completely different sets of predictions. It could be a wild night—and let’s hope there are some surprises because award shows this year have been pretty darn boring.

Besides noting that this year’s show could be the most boring and predictable ever, the Shelfers generally liked what they saw. Although noting that there is never—never!—enough horror, a point underscored after The Invisible Man’s Elisabeth Moss failed to make the cut, just as her fellow scream queen Lupita Nyong’o did last year.

It’s also been a very strange year and award season just isn’t the same without festivals, line-ups, red carpets, and parties. We’re all Zoomed out, and presumably voters are too. Do screen fatigue and burnout mean that voters are paying more attention to what’s happening on the virtual campaign trail, or less? Will the unbearably long season make much difference, or were votes mostly settled after screeners went out in December? Nevertheless, the top prize will likely go as expected with Nomadland tapped to triumph in our Oscar predictions and nearly all bets placed in the race.

That Shelf sent out an open call to all writers to submit their Oscar predictions. Participants were Bil Antoniou, Emma Badame, Deirdre Crimmins, Jason Gorber, Daniel Grant, Pat Mullen, Scott Murphy, Akash Singh, Shane Slater, Courtney Small, and Rachel West. Contributors could abstain from any category in which they didn’t have an opinion or hadn’t seen enough nominees.



Herewith are That Shelf’s Oscar predictions and picks for who should win!


But first: Download your printable ballot and play along with your Oscar predictions!

Frances McDormand and Swankie in the film Nomadland. Photo Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures.


Best Picture

The nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

We’re all going with Nomadland on this one. From the moment it debuted at TIFF and Venice, it was the film to beat. No other nominee has presented itself as a realistic challenger at this point. Yes, The Trial of the Chicago 7 won the SAG Best Ensemble prize—a reliable bellwether—but that gong is ultimately one for the cast and not the film itself. Chicago could have been the Best Picture winner of 1981, but no film tapped into the pulse of 2020 quite like Nomadland did. In the absence of a challenger, few films will be able to overcome the additional hurdle of the preferential Best Picture ballot, which requires a ranked list and for a film to net fifty percent of the vote plus one.


Will win


Nomadland: everyone


Should win

The Father: Deirdre, Jason, Rachel

Minari: Akash, Emma, Scott


Nomadland: Bil, Courtney, Pat, Shane

Promising Young Woman: Daniel


This for that

Bil says: Take out The Trial of the Chicago 7


Courtney says: Boot Mank for Da 5 Bloods

Deirdre says: Swap out Mank for Relic

Pat says: Dump Mank (yawn!) and replace it with Boys State

Scott says: Swap Promising Young Woman for Da 5 Bloods


Director/Writer Chloé Zhao and Frances McDormand on the set of Nomadland. Photo Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures.

Best Director

The nominees: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), David Fincher (Mank), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Zhao is the one to beat. Even in cases where critics or organizations gave Best Picture to another film, Zhao often took the directing prize in a split. Her unique style of casting non-professional actors and people who live the stories she tells is a remarkable feat. Deirdre Crimmins is going rogue in her Oscar predictions, betting on Fincher to get an Oscar that many feel is overdue. With 10 nominations, Mank has to win something, right?


Will win

David Fincher: Deirdre

Chloé Zhao: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Daniel, Emma, Jason, Pat, Scott, Shane, Rachel


Should win

Thomas Vinterberg: Rachel

Chloé Zhao: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Pat, Scott, Shane


This for that

Akash says: Switch David Fincher and Thomas Vinterberg for Jasmila Žbanić (Quo Vadis, Aida?) and Kaouther Ben Hania (The Man Who Sold His Skin)

Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom | Netflix

Best Actor

The nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)

Anthony Hopkins pulled an upset by winning the BAFTA last week, besting favourite Chadwick Boseman. However, most of our writers chalk that up to the Brits giving a win to the home team. We generally expect Boseman to earn his posthumous due. The performance legitimately deserves consideration, but the sentimental factor seals the deal. Watch out for Riz Ahmed, though. Like Hopkins, he’s in a Best Picture nominee that did well on nomination day, while many feel that Ma Rainey under-performed.


Will win

Riz Ahmed: Jason

Chadwick Boseman: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Pat, Rachel Shane

Anthony Hopkins: Scott


Should win

Riz Ahmed: Courtney, Daniel, Emma, Jason

Chadwick Boseman: Akash, Shane

Anthony Hopkins: Bil, Deirdre, Pat, Rachel, Scott


This for that

Courtney says: Replace Gary Oldman with Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods)

Emma, Pat and Rachel say: Swap out Gary Oldman for Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

Golden Globe Predictions
Frances McDormand  NOMADLAND. Photo Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures.

Best Actress

The nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)


Here’s a tricky one among this year’s Oscar predictions. Frances McDormand entered the season as the favourite, and generally looked to be the winner as things started falling into place. She openly doesn’t give a toot about awards and did very little campaigning outside her required promo tied to the release. Having just won three years ago for Three Billboards and being expected to win another Oscar as producer of Nomadland (although producer names are not on the Best Picture ballot itself), another win could seem like overkill to voters. It seems that the industry feels that way since McDormand’s accolades generally stopped after the critics’ prizes. But it’s also weird to consider that one can detach McDormand’s performance from one’s support for the film, since she carries nearly every frame of it.


The alternatives make a race that seemed dull in December feel quite exciting. Andra Day won the Golden Globe, Viola Davis won the SAG Award, and Carey Mulligan won the Critics Choice and Independent Spirit Award, while McDormand won the BAFTA. Splits this wide are rare in the acting races these days. Day feels lie a one-off with the Globes, though, given how little play Billie Holiday had, while Mulligan has been a steady threat all season. Following Davis’s SAG win, the conversation brought renewed attention to the lack of Black stars to win Best Actress. Few actors deserve to make history in the way that Davis does. The widely-loved star is a force of nature in the title role of Ma Rainey. Both she and Mulligan offer good arguments for an upset.


Will win

Viola Davis: Bil, Rachel, Shane

Frances McDormand: Courtney, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Pat, Scott

Carey Mulligan: Akash


Should win

Andra Day: Bil

Vanessa Kirby: Emma

Frances McDormand: Courtney, Deidre, Jason, Pat, Scott, Shane

Carey Mulligan: Akash, Daniel, Rachel


This for that

Akash says: Swap out Frances McDormand for Jasna Đuričić (Quo Vadis, Aida?)

Pat says: Swap out Andra Day and replace her with Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit)

Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Daniel Kaluuya steamrolled the season. The only bump, really, is the completely random nomination for his co-star Lakeith Stanfield, which is silly considering they’re both leads. It wouldn’t be entirely surprising if Stanfield’s nomination simply reflected the fact that the old white folks in the Academy didn’t know who played Judas and who played the Black messiah.


Will win

Daniel Kaluuya: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Daniel, Emma, Jason, Pat, Shane, Rachel

Leslie Odom, Jr.: Deirdre


Should win

Daniel Kaluuya: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Daniel, Emma, Jason, Pat, Shane, Rachel, Scott

Paul Raci: Deidre

Yuh-jung Youn in Minari

Best Supporting Actress 

The nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

Minari star Yuh-jung Youn pulled the rug out from under frontrunner Maria Bakalova. A veteran of South Korean cinema, Youn’s performance is a critical favourite and won the two awards that really count—the SAG and the BAFTAs—given the overlap between voters. The only test will be sympathy for Glenn Close…we all want her to win an Oscar, but not for Hillbilly Elegy.


Will win

Maria Bakalova: Jason

Glenn Close: Daniel

Yuh-jung Youn: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Deirdre, Pat, Rachel, Scott, Shane


Should win

Maria Bakalova: Courtney, Deirdre, Jason, Rachel

Yuh-jung Youn: Akash, Bil, Daniel, Emma, Pat, Scott, Shane


This for that

Emma says: Take out Glenn Close and replace her with Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Pat says: Give Glenn Close the hook and give the spot to Swankie (Nomadland)

Rachel says: Swap Glenn Close for Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman…or anyone. No one in Hillbilly Elegy deserves to be nominated for anything other than a Razzie.

Promising Young Woman


Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Trial of the Chicago 7

Emerald Fennell won’t win the directing prize over Chloé Zhao, but this year’s other Oscar nominated female auteur has a decent chance to snap up an award for her darkly funny satire Promising Young Woman. Winning both the BAFTA and the Writers’ Guild Award, Fennell’s script knocked off the requisite precursors. Judas and Sound have hardly been widely praised for their scripts and another win for Sorkin seems retrograde. But watch out for Minari. It’s widely beloved and the subtle screenplay is a rare chance for recognition.


Will win

Minari: Jason

Promising Young Woman: Akash, Courtney, Daniel, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Shane

The Trial of the Chicago 7: Bil, Deirdre, Scott


Should win

Minari: Akash, Jason, Scott

Promising Young Woman: Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Pat, Rachel

Sound of Metal: Bil, Courtney

The Trial of the Chicago 7: Shane


This for that

Akash says: Swap out Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) for Jasmila Žbanić (Quo Vadis, Aida?) and Kaouther Ben Hania (The Man Who Sold His Skin)

Bob Wells in Nomadland. Photo Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures


Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger


Here’s one of the most hotly debated categories in our Oscar predictions. A lot depends on how much one knows about Nomadland and researched it. The adaptation, while featuring moments of improvisation, is scripted, albeit unconventionally with a general narrative structure adapted to fit the characters and circumstances the team encountered along the way. It’s easy to conflate the directing and the writing. On the other hand, The Father is obviously tightly scripted and ingeniously so—every word transforms one’s perceptions of the characters and their reality. One Night in Miami, meanwhile, adapts a stage play that imagines an encounter between four men who each made history on their own terms. Borat is a bit of an oddity here given how much of it is improvised (the Nomadland fan calling the kettle black here, but whatever) while The White Tiger is a longshot that hardly lives up to its source material.



Will win

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Rachel

The Father: Emma, Jason

Nomadland: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Daniel, Pat, Scott, Shane

One Night in Miami: Deirdre


Should win

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Rachel

The Father: Bil, Emma, Jason

Nomadland: Deirdre, Pat, Scott

One Night in Miami: Courtney, Daniel, Shane

The White Tiger: Akash

Another Round

Best International Feature

The nominees: Another Round (Denmark), Better Days (Hong Kong), Collective (Romania), The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia), Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Quo Vadis, Aida? could have won this prize under the previous rules in which Academy members had to prove they’d seen all five nominees in the category in order to vote. (Which, frankly, should be required in every category.) However, Best International Feature is now an open race and Another Round had the most play. It’s also a brilliant feat of tragicomedy with remarkable performances and direction, the latter being one of the most satisfying surprises among the nominees. Watch out for Collective, though, which could either double dip or split the vote between its nominations here and in the doc category.


Will win

Another Round: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Daniel, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Scott, Shane

Collective: Jason

Quo Vadis, Aida: Deirdre


Should win

Another Round: Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Scott

Collective: Courtney, Shane

Quo Vadis, Aida: Akash, Bil

My Octopus Teacher | Netflix

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees: Crip Camp, Collective, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time

Collective and Time are the critics’ favourites, but struggled outside the writers’ circle. Alternatively, Crip Camp’s admirably formulaic approach won plaudits across the industry while many critics groaned.

My Octopus Teacher, meanwhile, is a rare doc that made the cut without any festival play. It was among the films announced as 2020 Hot Docs selections, but it didn’t screen in the festival’s virtual edition. It simply appeared on Netflix with little fanfare in September—in the middle of TIFF, no less—and established itself as a word of mouth hit. People genuinely respond to this film. The awards season reflects this sentiment in the fact that My Octopus Teacher is the only doc to score nominations at all key Oscar precursors, like the Directors Guild of America Awards, the Producers Guild of America Awards, the Critics’ Choice Awards, American Cinema Editors Awards, and the BAFTAs. It won the PGA, ACE, and the BAFTA, which have considerably more overlap with the general Oscar voting body than the critics’ groups that have favoured the film’s competitors.


Will win

Collective: Akash, Courtney, Emma

Crip Camp: Bil

My Octopus Teacher: Deirdre, Jason, Pat, Scott, Shane

Time: Rachel


Should win

Collective: Akash, Bil, Shane

My Octopus Teacher: Emma, Rachel, Scott

Time: Courtney, Deirdre, Jason, Pat


This for that

Pat says: Kick The Mole Agent to the curb and give the prize to Boys State

Jason agrees: Swap The Mole Agent for Boys State and My Octopus Teacher for The Truffle Hunters while we’re at it.


Best Animated Feature


The nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers


Pixar triumphs again. Yawn.

If there’s a battle between monolith and mouse, Wolfwalkers could enjoy a surge of independent spirit. But as the only contender nominated outside the category, Soul presumably connected with more viewers, especially through its dazzling use of sound and music.


Will win

Shaun the Sheep: Scott

Soul: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Shane


Should win

Onward: Bil

Soul: Courtney, Daniel, Emma, Jason

Wolfwalkers: Deirdre, Pat, Rachel, Shane

Nomadland | Searchlight Pictures

Best Cinematography


The nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Nomadland, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7


It’s the magic hour of Nomadland versus the black and white Mankfest!


Will win

Mank: Bil, Jason

Nomadland: Akash, Courtney, Daniel, Deirdre, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Scott, Shane


Should win

Mank: Jason, Shane

News of the World: Bil, Courtney

Nomadland: Akash, Daniel, Deidre, Emma, Pat, Rachel, Scott

Linda May and Frances McDormand in Nomadland | Searchlight Pictures

Best Film Editing

The nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Another tricky one for the Oscar predictions. The Oscar voters usually give Best Film Editing and the sound awards to the same films. (ex: Bohemian Rhapsody, Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, Ford vs. Ferrari, Whiplash, Mad Max: Fury Road, etc.). The only film in both categories is Sound of Metal, so that may be the winner on the technical front. Alternatively, Nomadland has the difficult task of using limited takes from non-professional actors, while The Father has cuts that prove truly devastating—although their impact could be attributed to the writing just as easily. Chicago 7, on the other hand, is the most conventional of the pack. The editing isn’t flashy, but studio films generally prevail here.


Will win

The Father: Scott

Nomadland: Akash, Daniel, Emma, Jason, Pat

Sound of Metal: Bil, Shane

The Trial of the Chicago 7: Courtney, Deirdre, Rachel


Should win

The Father: Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Rachel, Scott

Nomadland: Daniel, Pat

Promising Young Woman: Akash

Sound of Metal, Bil, Courtney

The Trial of the Chicago 7: Shane

Sound of Metal

Best Sound

The nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal


Following that discussion, Sound of Metal is a consensus favourite here despite some varied opinions on how editing will go. Sound plays such an intricate role in the film’s portrayal of deafness that it’s hard to imagine a challenger. Soul creates a world through music and sound effects, while Greyhound, Mank, and News of the World are technical accomplishments even if they don’t use sound subjectively in the way Metal does.


Will win

Mank: Emma

Sound of Metal: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Deirdre, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Scott, Shane


Should win

Sound of Metal: everyone

Man Rainey’s Black Bottom | Netflix

Best Costume Design

The nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio

Four formidable nominees and Pinocchio make this one a tough call. They’re all period films with sizable casts, thus putting lots of beads and feathers to good use. A toss-up.


Will win

Emma: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Deirdre, Rachel

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: Emma, Pat, Shane

Mank: Jason, Scott


Should win

Emma: Akash, Bil, Emma, Pat, Rachel

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: Deirdre, Jason

Mank: Scott

Mulan: Courtney, Shane

Mank | Netflix

Best Production Design

The nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet

Production design is to The Father what sound design is to Sound of Metal. However, contemporary films rarely win here, so we’re not placing our bets on The Father’s head-spinning apartment. Mank has lots of sets that recreate the world of Citizen Kane and William Randolph Hearst’s Xanadu of a mansion. Wallpaper is a wonderful metaphor for the film, too.


Will win

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: Akash, Shane

Mank: Bil, Courtney, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel

Tenet: Scott


Should win

The Father: Bil, Emma, Pat, Rachel

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: Akash, Deirdre

Mank: Scott, Shane

News of the World: Courtney

Tenet: Jason

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom | Netflix

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio

Anyone who can make Viola Davis look that gross and sweaty deserves an Oscar, right?


Will win

Emma: Courtney

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: Akash, Deirdre, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Scott, Shane

Mank: Bil

Pinocchio: Emma


Should win

Emma: Courtney

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: Akash, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Scott, Shane

Mank: Bil, Jason


Best Music – Original Score

The nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

We’re generally going with Soul here. The film juggles two different worlds through intricate use of jazz and contemporary Reznor/Ross beats. The duo is also nominated for Mank, though, and could split the vote, leaving room for News of the World’s James Newton Howard to collect his first win on his ninth nomination, or newcomer Emile Mosseri (Minari) to win on his first.


Will win

Minari: Deirdre

News of the World: Courtney

Soul: Akash, Bil, Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Shane


Should win

Minari: Deirdre, Emma

Soul: Akash, Bil, Courtney, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Shane

Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami | Photo: Patti Perret/Amazon Studios

Best Music – Original Song

The nominees: Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah), “Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7), “Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga), “Io sì (Seen)” (The Life Ahead), “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)

Here’s another category that could go any way. On one hand, it seems like a no brainer to call it for Diane Warren to win for delivering a banger power ballad that translates her signature style into Italian without missing a beat. Warren has never won, though, despite this being her twelfth nomination and being considerably worthy for songs like “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing,” “Because You Loved Me,” and “When It Happens to You.” Perhaps her songs are just too corny for some voters.

As alternates, there’s a heavy hitter in Leslie Odom, Jr.’s anthem for change, “Speak Now,” from One Night in Miami. He’s not going to win Best Supporting Actor, but this category could be his insurance against exiting the Zoom empty handed. But it’s not especially a standout atop the film’s end credits, which one could also say for “Fight for You” and “Hear My Voice.” If voters care about a song’s narrative function, they could delight our team by rewarding Eurovision fave “Husavik.”


Will win

“Fight for You”: Courtney, Scott

“Hear My Voice”: Deirdre

“Io sì”: Bil, Emma, Pat, Shane

“Speak Now”: Jason, Rachel


Should win

“Husavik”: Deirdre, Jason, Scott, Shane

“Io sì”: Pat

“Speak Now”: Bil, Courtney, Emma, Jason, Rachel

Tenet Review

Best Visual Effects

The nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet

How many people have even heard of Love and Monsters and The One and Only Ivan, let alone seen them? Tenet is 27 kinds of stupid, but its visual effects are as complicated as its plot—and far more impressive.


Will win

The One and Only Ivan: Bil

Tenet: Akash, Courtney, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Scott, Shane


Should win

The One and Only Ivan: Bil

Tenet: Courtney, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Scott, Shane

A Concerto Is a Conversation

Best Documentary, Short Subject

The nominees: Colette, A Concerto Is a Conversation, Do Not Split, Hunger Ward, A Love Song for Latasha

It’s a tough call between Concerto and Latasha. The short doc category seems to be one in which Academy members consistently vote for the times, at least in recent years, so it’s hard to imagine anything else winning after Black Lives Matter defined so much of 2020. Experimental docs rarely triumph and the Oscars favour convention, so Latasha might fall a few votes short of the win. The category is one of the tougher calls of the night overall, but A Concerto Is a Conversation could win the prize for its sweetly composed and inspiring multi-generational portrait.


Will win

Colette: Bil, Rachel

A Concerto Is a Conversation: Deirdre, Jason, Pat

Do Not Split: Courtney

Hunger Ward: Emma, Jason

A Love Song for Latasha: Scott


Should win

Colette: Courtney

A Concerto Is a Conversation: Jason

Do Not Split: Bil, Pat

Hunger Ward: Deirdre

A Love Song for Latasha: Emma, Jason, Scott

If Anything Happens I Love You Oscar-nominated animated short
If Anything Happens, I Love You

Best Animated Short

The nominees: Burrow, Genius Loci, If Anything Happens, I Love You, Opera, Yes-People

We’re going with the consensus and saying that If Anything Happens, I Love You will win for its emotionally jarring portrait of loss and grief. This message about gun violence has the “something else” factor that the other nominees lack, even though they’re all entertaining and/or artistically accomplished works.


Will win

Burrow: Courtney

Genius Loci: Jason

If Anything Happens, I Love You: Emma, Jason, Pat

Yes-People: Scott


Should win

If Anything Happens, I Love You: Courtney, Emma, Jason, Pat

Yes-People: Jason, Scott

Two Distant Strangers

Best Live Action Short

The nominees: Feeling Through, The Letter Room, The Present, Two Distant Strangers, White Eye

We’re looking at the category from all angles! The group is tied four to four in predicting The Letter Room and Two Distant Strangers. One sees Oscar Isaac as a prison guard in a routine job, the other gives time loops narratives the Black Lives Matter treatment to speak to the ongoing cycle of lives lost to police brutality. As with the short doc category, this race could see the Oscars attune to the times.


Will win

The Letter Room: Emma, Deirdre, Jason, Scott

The Present: Courtney

Two Distant Strangers: Pat, Jason, Rachel, Shane


Should win

Feeling Through: Courtney

The Letter Room: Emma, Deirdre, Jason, Scott

The Present: Pat

Two Distant Strangers: Bil

White Eye: Shane


Which nominee are you rooting for the most?

Akash: Carey Mulligan

Bil: Collective

Courtney: Riz Ahmed

Daniel: Daniel Kaluuya

Deirdre: The Father

Emma: Another Round and anything Minari, The Father, or Sound of Metal!

Pat: Diane Warren! It’s her 12th nomination, guys. Throw her a bone.

Rachel: As much as I’d love to see Chloe Zhao or Emerald Fennell win, I’m rooting for Thomas Vinterberg. Another Round is incredible and to do it while dealing with a family tragedy is astonishing

Scott: Chloé Zhao

Shane: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari


What are your Oscar predictions and picks? Tweet us at That Shelf!

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