Our Oscar predictions mark the welcome end to the half-year grind known as awards season. Babies have been kissed, ballots have been cast, and dignity has left the building. In an odd twist for the films of 2023, which featured the epic blockbuster bonanza of Barbenheimer, the season’s really been a one-movie show. Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer cleaned up all over the place. That will make for either a boring Oscar party or a really exciting one.
Most of the races seem like forgone conclusions. There are only a few categories that feel up in the air: Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Sound, Best Animated Short, Best Documentary Short, Best Production Design, and Best Costumes. Everything else seems good and Oppenheimered.
Moreover, don’t expect voters to share the wealth between movies. Last year saw several Best Picture nominees go home empty handed as Everything Everywhere seemingly won everything all at once, ditto All Quiet on the Western Front. The “this film has to win something” mentality is a recipe for disaster on the Oscar predictions front.
All contributors at That Shelf were invited to submit their Oscar predictions, personal picks, and a few plugs for films they’d wished had been nominated. Responses were submitted by Bil Antoniou, Dakota Arsenault, Emma Badame, Colin Biggs, Deirdre Crimmins, Ethan Dayton, Larry Fried, Jason Gorber, Barbara Goslawski, Pat Mullen, Adam Schoales, Matthew Simpson, Courtney Small, and Rachel West.
Here are That Shelf’s fearless Oscar predictions and picks!
Best Picture
The nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Okay, the Vegas odds payouts on nine of these nominees will be ridiculous if one puts money on anything but Oppenheimer, but place your bets smartly. Even though 2023 was an incredible year for movies, there was zero diversity in recognition outside the critics’ group awards. Oppenheimer has swept the field to the point where there really isn’t a clear second place film to challenge it. After scoring top prizes at (deep breath) the Golden Globes, Producers’ Guild, Directors’ Guild, SAG Awards, BAFTAs, and pretty much every industry guild on the arts and tech front (cinematographers, editors, sound), there is no corner of the industry that hasn’t endorsed it. These stats make it inevitable that Oppenheimer will amass the necessary 50% of the vote + 1 on the preferential ballot. (However, we asked Shelfers to rank their Best Picture choices in the same fashion, and Zone of Interest edged out a narrow win after a single-vote ballot fell out.)
Will win
Oppenheimer: Everyone
Should win
Adam: 1) Oppenheimer 2) Barbie 3) Anatomy of a Fall
Barbara: 1) Anatomy of a Fall 2) Past Lives 3) The Zone of Interest 4) Poor Things 5) Oppenheimer 6) American Fiction 7) Killers of the Flower Moon 8) Barbie 9) The Holdovers 10) Maestro
Bil: 1) The Zone of Interest 2) Anatomy of a Fall 3) Killers of the Flower Moon 4) The Holdovers 5) Past Lives
Colin: 1) Oppenheimer 2) Killers of the Flower 3) Poor Things
Courtney: 1) Killers of the Flower Moon 2) The Zone of Interest 3) Oppenheimer 4) Past Lives 5) Poor Things 6) The Holdovers 7) Anatomy of a Fall 8) American Fiction 9) Barbie 10) Maestro
Dakota: 1) The Zone of Interest 2) Oppenheimer 3) The Holdovers 4) Poor Things 5) Killers of the Flower Moon 6) Barbie 7) Past Lives 8) Maestro 9) American Fiction 10) Anatomy of a Fall
Deirdre: 1) Poor Things 2) The Holdovers 3) The Zone of Interest
Emma: 1) Oppenheimer 2) The Zone of Interest 3) Past Lives 4) Anatomy of a Fall 5) Poor Things 6) The Holdovers 7) Killers of the Flower Moon 8) American Fiction 9) Barbie 10) Maestro
Ethan: 1) Poor Things 2) Oppenheimer 3) American Fiction 4) Barbie 5) Past Lives 6) The Holdovers 7) Anatomy of a Fall 8) The Zone of Interest 9) Killers of the Flower Moon 10) Maestro
Jason: 1) The Zone of Interest 2) Killers of the Flower Moon 3) Oppenheimer 4) Maestro 5) Anatomy of a Fall 6) The Holdovers 7) American Fiction
Larry: 1) Past Lives 2) The Holdovers 3) Oppenheimer 4) American Fiction 5) Anatomy of a Fall 6) Poor Things 7) Maestro 8) Barbie 9) Killers of the Flower Moon 10) The Zone of Interest
Matthew: 1) Past Lives
Pat: 1) The Holdovers 2) The Zone of Interest 3) Poor Things 4) Barbie 5) Killers of the Flower Moon 6) Oppenheimer 7) Past Lives 8) Maestro 9) Anatomy of a Fall 10) American Fiction
Rachel: 1) Oppenheimer 2) Anatomy of a Fall 3) Poor Things 4) Killers of the Flower Moon 5) The Holdovers 6) Maestro 7) Past Lives 8) American Fiction 9) The Zone of Interest 10) Barbie
This for that
Adam says: Swap out The Holdovers for BlackBerry
Courtney says: Swap out Maestro for All of Us Strangers
Deirdre says: Swap out Maestro for Talk to Me. It is legitimately a better film!
Larry says: Swap out The Zone of Interest for How to Blow Up a Pipeline
Pat says: Swap out Anatomy of a Fall for The Taste of Things (hee hee!) and American Fiction for All of Us Strangers
Best Director
The nominees: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
See above. One of the safest bets of the night. Film bros, rejoice!
Will win
Christopher Nolan: Everyone
Should win
Justine Triet: Barbara, Emma
Martin Scorsese: Courtney
Christopher Nolan: Adam, Colin, Dakota, Larry, Matthew
Yorgos Lanthimos: Deirdre, Ethan, Rachel
Jonathan Glazer: Bil, Jason, Pat
This for that
Colin says: Swap out Jonathan Glazer for Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
Emma says: Swap out Martin Scorsese for Celine Song (Past Lives)
Actress in a Leading Role
The nominees: Annette Bening, Nyad; Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Emma Stone, Poor Things
One of the night’s best showdowns in the ceremony’s most beloved categories, Best Actress has some of the evening’s best drama. Emma Stone might be the favourite with a Golden Globe and BAFTA, plus a chorus of career-best reviews for her zany and totally original performance as Bella Baxter. She’s just the right balance of poised and unhinged, and it’s the showiest part—and voters love that. Stone already has a win under her belt for La La Land, so it’s possible that voters may feel it’s too soon to honour her again, especially when Lily Gladstone represents an historic win, as a Best Actress Oscar would be a first for an Indigenous performer. Besides history, Gladstone’s performance has the goods to entice Oscar voters with its brilliantly understated turn that speaks volumes through her silent screen presence. It’s a tough part that voters may recognize. Complicating matters is the fact that both Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon amassed great hauls in the nominations and are bound to win something on Sunday night. That’s not good news for industry veteran Annette Bening, who’s feat in Nyad isn’t quite getting the credit it deserves, while Sandra Hüller may be the wild card of the night – but if she didn’t win at the BAFTAS, which tends to be kinder to this sort of film, then she’s less likely to shake things up on Sunday. Stone or Gladstone: take your pick.
Will win
Lily Gladstone: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Matthew, Pat, Rachel
Carey Mulligan: Adam
Emma Stone: Bil Emma
Should win
Annette Bening: Pat (sorry)
Lily Gladstone: Bil, Courtney, Emma, Jason, Matthew
Sandra Hüller: Adam, Barbara, Colin, Larry
Emma Stone: Dakota, Deirdre, Ethan, Rachel
This for that
Adam says: Swap out Annette Bening for Margot Robbie in Barbie
Courtney says: Swap Annette Bening for Greta Lee in Past Lives
Larry says: Swap out Annette Bening for Greta Lee in Past Lives
Pat says: Swap out Carey Mulligan for Aunjanue Ellis in Origin
Actor in a Leading Role
The nominees: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Colman Domingo, Rustin; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
For a while, it seemed that Bradley Cooper had this thing in the bag. “Seemed” is the key word, since his Oscar campaign arguably overshadowed the quality of his performance and the admiration for it. He made the cardinal sin of admitting that he wanted it so badly, and there was just too much Bradley around town with him chasing votes for directing and writing as well. (He was successful in the latter category.) With a combined 12 nominations under his belt and probably no wins after Sunday, he’s inching dangerously close to Diane Warren territory.
In the other corner is Paul Giamatti, the guy who is doing somewhat better with the “overdue” status since he missed the cut for his beloved turn in Sideways. But his performance in The Holdovers is also getting praise as a career best. His loveable curmudgeon reminds people why he’s one of the best actors of his generation, but also among those most taken for granted. He is a major threat to win with a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award among his accolades this season, and voters really love The Holdovers—but his co-star Da’Vine Joy Randolph has steamrolled the season while Giamatti’s only won here and there, so it’s possible that her win may be sufficient recognition for the film in the eyes of some voters.
That’s sort of the curiosity with Cillian Murphy’s mesmerizing performance in Oppenheimer: he carries nearly every frame of the film that’s all but assured to win Best Picture, but will Oppenheimer really win everything? He won on home turf at the BAFTAs and at the SAG Awards where the large voting body skews younger so there may be some asterisks beside his key wins that work in Giamatti’s favour.
Our writers are still rioting in the streets over the absence of All of Us Strangers’ Andrew Scott, but they took a moment to share their thoughts. (Justice for Andrew Scott!)
Will win
Bradley Cooper: Adam
Paul Giamatti: Pat
Cillian Murphy: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Matthew, Rachel
Should win
Colman Domingo: Courtney
Paul Giamatti: Bil, Colin, Deirdre, Larry, Pat
Cillian Murphy: Adam, Barbara, Dakota, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Matthew, Rachel
This for that
Barbara says: Swap that insulting, reductive nineties sitcom gay man stereotype performance of Bradley Cooper’s in Maestro for Andrew Scott and the subtle complexity of his incandescent performance in All of Us Strangers (and this is not just because of the sexual orientation of these characters – Cooper’s performance was too simple and mannered to be a standout of the year)
Emma says: Swap out Bradley Cooper for Andrew Scott in All of Us Strangers
Pat says: Swap out Cillian Murphy for Andrew Scott in All of Us Strangers (there can only be one Irishman!)
Rachel says: Swap out Bradley Cooper for Andrew Scott in All of Us Strangers
Actress in a Supporting Role
The nominees: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; America Ferrera, Barbie; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Quite possibly the surest call of the night. If Oppenheimer dominated the season, Da’Vine Joy Randolph obliterated the competition like a nuclear bomb. Her hilarious yet heartbreaking turn as the quick-witted and grieving cafeteria matron of The Holdovers checks all the boxes for a win in this category. Add the fact that she’s a character actor who’s gained a lot of notice in recent years for memorable turns, and there’s a clear sense that Randolph has one of those “right role, right time” moments to take her career to another level.
Will win
Da’Vine Joy Randolph: Everyone
Should win
Emily Blunt: Jason
Da’Vine Joy Randolph: Adam, Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Ethan, Larry, Matthew, Pat, Rachel
This for that
Bil says: Swap out America Ferrera for Penélope Cruz in Ferrari
Colin says: Swap out Emily Blunt for Rachel McAdams in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Courtney says: Swap out Jodie Foster for Julianne Moore in May December
Dakota says: Swap out Jodie Foster for Scarlett Johansson in Asteroid City
Pat says: Swap out America Ferrera for Juliette Binoche in The Taste of Things and Danielle Brooks for Julianne Moore in May December
Actor in a Supporting Role
The nominees: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
One of the night’s best Barbenheimer face-offs isn’t as fun as it felt this summer. Robert Downey Jr.’s cleaned up this season for his turn as Oppenheimer’s villain, while Gosling’s hilarious performance in Barbie is arguably the film’s secret ingredient. That will have to be Kenough for Canada’s favourite Ryan, though. It’s the Oppenheimer show on Sunday and Barbie’s lost steam after underperforming at the Golden Globes and getting shut-out at the BAFTA. But nobody does beach quite like you, Ryan!
Will win
Robert Downey Jr.: Everyone
Should win
Sterling K. Brown: Larry
Robert Downey Jr.: Adam, Bil, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Matthew
Ryan Gosling: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Jason, Pat, Rachel
This for that
Adam says: Swap out Robert De Niro (he’s had his time) for Matt Johnson in BlackBerry
Courtney says: Swap out Sterling K. Brown for Charles Melton in May December
Dakota says: Swap out Sterling K. Brown for Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry
Emma says: Swap out Robert De Niro for Paul Mescal in All of Us Strangers
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Here’s an interesting one. Warner Bros. campaigned Barbie as an original work despite openly crediting the source material on which it was based in all campaign materials. Folks in the industry debate how much “adaptation” is involved in building a story out from a toy’s world. But many jokes in Barbie rely on its connection to said source material, so (nerd moment) as someone who focused his Master’s on film adaptation, this call feels correct. But it also makes both screenplay categories something of a wild card since Barbie has been a key player in the original category until tonight, as everyone else accepted the campaign placement of “original.”
Greta Gerwig’s omission from the directing category arguably spotlights the fact that the strength of Barbie really is more due to its writing than its directing, and even a cynical fan must admire how she and Noah Baumbach pulled off the unenviable challenge of making a comedy based on a lucrative piece of corporate intellectual property while satirizing its problematic relationship with women’s rights and bodies, while also making something that toed the party line just enough to avoid getting shelved. She did it and that wasn’t easy, all the while earning over a billion dollars at the box office.
At the same time, the other nominees are adaptations in the traditional sense that rework literary pieces into cinema. American Fiction has won the most favour without having to compete with Barbie at other award shows—but, at the same time, its satire has been called “toothless” and “dynamite” with equal measure. And, of course, there’s the Oppenheimer show.
Will win
American Fiction: Barbara, Jason, Larry, Rachel
Barbie: Adam, Courtney, Deirdre, Emma, Matthew, Pat
Oppenheimer: Bil, Dakota, Ethan
Poor Things: Colin
Should win
American Fiction: Barbara, Bil, Courtney, Larry
Barbie: Colin, Ethan, Matthew
Oppenheimer: Adam, Dakota
Poor Things: Emma, Rachel
The Zone of Interest: Deirdre, Jason, Pat
This for that
Emma says: Swap out Barbie for All of Us Strangers
Pat says: Swap out Oppenheimer for All of Us Strangers
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
With Barbie out of the way, the category switch likely cleared a path for the night’s other woman of the hour, Justine Triet. Her courtroom whodunit has a lot of fans and the writing keeps a viewer guessing long after it finishes. Sure, it may play like an arthouse Basic Instinct to some, while other viewers may think the dingo killed Sandra Hüller’s husband, but the fact that the film’s indebted to familiar genre movies is key to its eye-opening portrait of France’s loony judicial system. On the other hand, The Holdovers could triumph here for its classically composed comedy that warmed the hearts during holiday voting.
Will win
Anatomy of a Fall: Adam, Barbara, Bil, Courtney, Deirdre, Ethan, Jason, Pat, Rachel
The Holdovers: Colin, Dakota, Emma, Larry
May December: Matthew
Should win
Anatomy of a Fall: Adam, Barbara, Ethan, Rachel
The Holdovers: Colin, Deirdre, Jason, Pat
May December: Bil, Dakota
Past Lives: Courtney, Emma, Larry, Matthew
Best Documentary Feature
The nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Leave it to the doc branch to go rogue, but they picked one of the strongest categories while rejecting obvious contenders. Of the five incredibly worthy nominees, 20 Days in Mariupol has enjoyed the strongest presence throughout the season and has a healthy lead on the competition. The urgency of the story, its emotional wallop, and artistic bravery make it a smart choice for Oscar voters. Four Daughters seems to be gaining popularity, but I just can’t see the Academy awarding a hybrid film that features such a strong element of performance.
Will win
Bobi Wine: Bil
Four Daughters: Ethan
20 Days in Mariupol: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Larry, Pat, Rachel
Should win
The Eternal Memory: Larry
Four Daughters: Barbara, Bil, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Ethan, Rachel
To Kill a Tiger: Deirdre, Pat
20 Days in Mariupol: Jason
This for that
Dakota: Swap out Bobi Wine: The People’s President for Beyond Utopia
Best Animated Feature
The nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Like Best Actress, Best Animated Feature makes for one of the tougher Oscar predictions. Like the industry, we’re split on The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Even fans of Heron admit that it isn’t Miyazaki’s best, but it may be the last chance to honour the veteran, who previously won for Spirited Away. Alternatively, Across the Spider-Verse has near unanimous praise for outdoing its Oscar-winning predecessor Into the Spider-Verse and it’s literally half of a movie. Might this be a Lord of the Rings scenario if voters know that Beyond the Spider-Verse is coming and can simply award it then? But let’s face it: Nimona and Robot Dreams deserve some love!
Will win
The Boy and the Heron: Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Ethan, Matthew, Pat, Rachel
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Adam, Barbara, Bil, Jason, Larry
Should win
The Boy and the Heron: Adam, Deirdre
Nimona: Pat
Robot Dreams: Dakota, Jason, Larry, Rachel
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Emma, Ethan, Matthew
This for that
Larry says: Swap out Nimona for The Peasants
Best International Feature
The nominees: Io Capitano (Italy), Perfect Days (Japan), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
With nominations for Best Picture and Best Director in its tally, it seems inevitable that The Zone of Interest will win in this category on Sunday. It’s a smart choice in a strong field of contenders.
Will win
Perfect Days: Adam
The Zone of Interest: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Matthew, Pat, Rachel
Should win
Perfect Days: Adam, Barbara, Larry, Rachel
Society of the Snow: Ethan
The Teachers’ Lounge: Dakota
The Zone of Interest: Bil, Colin, Courtney, Deirdre, Emma, Jason, Matthew, Pat
This for that
Emma says: Swap out Society of the Snow (which I liked BUT) for Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Pat says: Swap out Society of the Snow for The Taste of Things (France)
Rachel says: Swap out Society of the Snow for The Promised Land (Denmark)
Best Cinematography
The nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
The Oppenheimer sweep will undoubtedly continue here as cinematographer Hoyte van Hoytema seems poised to take his first win on nomination number two. It’s a heavy favourite, so a miss here could be to Oppenheimer what Sound Mixing was to La La Land
Will win
Killers of the Flower: Matthew
Oppenheimer: Adam, Barbara, Bil, Dakota, Colin, Courtney, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Pat, Rachel
Poor Things: Deirdre
Should win
El Conde: Matthew
Killers of the Flower Moon: Jason
Maestro: Pat
Oppenheimer: Adam, Bil, Colin, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Larry
Poor Things: Barbara, Courtney, Ethan, Rachel
Best Costumes
The nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
One of two Barbie vs. Poor Things smackdowns. Voters frequently pair their votes for Best Costumes and Best Production Design, so predict smartly.
Will win
Barbie: Barbara, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Larry
Napoleon: Adam
Poor Things: Bil, Colin, Deirdre, Ethan, Jason, Pat, Matthew, Rachel
Should win
Barbie: Adam, Colin, Courtney, Dakota
Killers of the Flower Moon: Bil
Napoleon: Matthew
Poor Things: Barbara, Deirdre, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Pat, Rachel
Best Production Design
The nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Both Barbie and Poor Things imagine fully realized worlds: one rooted in nostalgia and branding, and the other in a mix of past, present, and steampunk future. The other three are finely detailed period works, but anyone who votes Napoleon deserves the guillotine.
Will win
Barbie: Adam, Colin, Dakota, Emma, Larry, Pat
Poor Things: Barbara, Bil, Courtney, Deirdre, Jason, Matthew, Rachel
Should win
Barbie: Adam, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Pat
Oppenheimer: Matthew
Poor Things: Barbara, Emma, Jason, Larry, Rachel
Best Film Editing
The nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
“Oppenheimer was three hours, but it moved so quickly that I couldn’t even feel my hemorrhoids!” – Brutally Honest Oscar Voter #4
Will win
Killers of the Flower Moon: Adam
Oppenheimer: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Matthew, Pat, Rachel
Should win
Anatomy of a Fall: Barbara, Bil, Larry, Matthew
Killers of the Flower Moon: Jason
Oppenheimer: Adam, Colin, Dakota, Pat, Rachel
Poor Things: Courtney, Deirdre, Emma, Ethan
Best Sound
The nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
Here’s another one to gauge Oppenheimer’s domination of the night. The film’s soundscape is epic Nolan-esque bombast, but The Zone of Interest creates the dramatic tension of its environment by conveying the horrors of the Holocaust through the sound design. It really all depends how voters conceive of merit in this case.
Will win
Oppenheimer: Barbara, Bil, Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Matthew, Pat
The Zone of Interest: Adam, Rachel
Should win
Maestro: Jason
Oppenheimer: Adam, Barbara, Colin, Emma, Larry
Mission: Impossible: Deirdre
The Zone of Interest: Bil, Courtney, Dakota, Ethan, Matthew, Pat, Rachel
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
Even people who hate Maestro must admit that the make-up job is swell, but will a controversial schnozz sink it?
Will win
Maestro: Adam, Dakota, Emma, Jason, Larry, Pat
Oppenheimer: Barbara, Ethan, Rachel
Poor Things: Bil, Colin, Courtney, Deirdre, Matthew
Should win
Maestro: Adam, Bil, Dakota, Jason, Pat
Poor Things: Barbara, Colin, Courtney, Deirdre, Emma, Rachel
Society of the Snow: Ethan, Larry, Matthew
This for that
Dakota: Swap out Golda for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Best Music – Original Score
The nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones: John Williams Cuts and Pastes Again, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How John Williams milked another nomination is so ridiculous that we’ll forgive the voters’ American Fiction nomination, but no film has much chance against Oppenheimer. A posthumous win for Robbie Robertson’s extraordinary work in Killers of the Flower Moon would be a welcome upset.
Will win
Killers of the Flower Moon: Adam, Courtney
Oppenheimer: Barbara, Bil, Dakota, Deirdre, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Matthew, Pat, Rachel
Poor Things: Colin
Should win
Killers of the Flower Moon: Barbara, Courtney, Pat
Oppenheimer: Adam, Bil, Dakota, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Matthew, Rachel
Poor Things: Deirdre
Best Music – Original Song
The nominees: “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon), “What Was I Made for?” (Barbie)
Billie Eilish seems poised for Oscar number two, but at least this song isn’t nearly as bad as the one from No Time to Die. “The Fire Inside” could be the wild card if Barbie splits the vote. If anyone can write a killer banger in homage to Flamin’ Hot Cheetos, it’s Diane Warren.
Will win
“What Was I Made for?”: everyone
Should win
“I’m Just Ken”: Adam, Barbara, Colin, Dakota, Deirdre, Jason, Pat, Rachel
“It Never Went Away”: Emma
“Wahzhazhe”: Larry, Matthew
“What Was I Made for?”: Bil, Courtney, Ethan
This for that
Dakota: Swap out “The Fire Inside” for “Camp Isn’t Home” from Theater Camp
Best Visual Effects
The nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon (lol)
A dead heat toss-up between The Creator and Godzilla. One must again congratulate the voters for staying awake during Napoleon. Thanks for taking one for the team, guys.
Will win
The Creator: Adam, Bil, Dakota, Jason, Pat, Rachel
Godzilla Minus One: Colin, Courtney, Ethan, Larry, Matthew
Mission: Impossible: Deirdre, Emma
Should win
The Creator: Adam, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Jason
Godzilla Minus One: Bil, Colin, Deirdre, Ethan, Larry, Matthew, Rachel
Mission: Impossible: Pat
Best Documentary Short Film
The nominees: The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between, The Last Repair Shop, Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
While The Last Repair Shop’s Ben Proudfoot won this award two years ago for The Queen of Basketball, his co-nominee Kris Bowers has yet to win despite extraordinary work in the documentary branch and music branch alike. And let’s be real: it’s one of the best short documentaries I’ve ever seen. It’s deeply moving, and the most accessible work of the bunch—an impeccably crafted doc that taps the viewer right in the heart while making a genuinely intelligent point about the ways in which the arts transform people’s lives. The ABCs of Book Banning is the wild card, though, given that it boasts Sheila Nevins’ first personal nomination after being the one of the biggest players in documentary…ever. She’s ushered several docs to the Oscars as executive producer and she’d probably win if this were to be strictly a doc branch vote. Like Repair Shop, ABCs also has a timely hook that’s hard to deny, but Repair Shop has the edge.
Will win
The ABCs of Book Banning: Colin, Dakota
The Barber of Little Rock: Courtney
Island in Between: Ethan
The Last Repair Shop: Jason, Larry, Pat, Rachel
Should win
The ABCs of Book Banning: Jason, Larry, Rachel
The Barber of Little Rock: Colin
Island in Between: Ethan
The Last Repair Shop: Courtney, Dakota, Pat
Best Live Action Short Film
The nominees: The After; Invincible; Knight of Fortune; Red, White, and Blue; The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
The key to predicting this category is to either pick the worst short or the first one on the ballot. Voters probably do the latter, which is easier than actually watching the films. In the former guess, that could bode well for Red, White, and Blue, which is way worse than Napoleon. Alternatively, Henry Sugar offers a chance to finally make an Oscar winner out of Wes Anderson. That’s a tough temptation to deny, even if the film isn’t his best work.
Will win
Red, White, and Blue: Jason
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Colin, Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Ethan, Larry, Pat, Rachel
Should win
Invincible: Pat
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Courtney, Dakota, Emma, Ethan, Jason, Larry, Rachel
Best Animated Short Film
The nominees: Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderm, WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
This one is a really tough call, but WAR IS OVER! and its ALL CAPS bombast hit the sweet spot in terms of nostalgia and technical finesse. There really isn’t a clear consensus on this category in terms of what people actually like best. It’s a strong group that really could go any way depending upon taste.
Will win
Letter to a Pig: Jason
Ninety-Five Senses: Courtney, Rachel
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko: Dakota, Ethan, Larry, Pat
Should win
Letter to a Pig: Pat
Ninety-Five Senses: Larry, Rachel
Our Uniform: Courtney, Dakota
WAR IS OVER!: Ethan, Jason
The 2025 Oscars will introduce an award for Best Casting. If 2023 had an Oscar for this category, what film do you think would have been the winner?
Adam: Oppenheimer (that cast is pretty much perfect)
Barbara: All of Us Strangers
Colin: Poor Things
Courtney: May December
Dakota: Oppenheimer
Deirdre: The Blackening
Emma: Oppenheimer (though I think All of Us Strangers, The Holdovers, or May December would’ve been deserving!)
Larry: Oppenheimer
Matthew: Oppenheimer
Pat: Killers of the Flower Moon
Rachel: Oppenheimer
Who Are You Rooting for Most on Oscar Night?
Adam: I know it’s the basic answer, but I’m rootin’ for my boy Chris and Oppy. It made me fall in love with movies again in a year I was starting to wonder if they could ever move me like they used to.
Barbara: Everyone connected to Anatomy of a Fall. I hope Messi the dog (shut out for best supporting actor as Snoop!) shows up
Bil: Anyone involved in The Holdovers
Colin: Oppenheimer
Courtney: Billie Eilish for Best Original Song
Dakota: Either The Zone of Interest for Best Sound or Wes Anderson for Best Live Action Short
Deirdre: Poor Things! I need weirdo cinema to get some representation here.
Emma: Lily Gladstone and Cillian Murphy!
Larry says: ROBOT DREEEEEEEAAMMSSSSSSSSS
Matthew says: FILMMAKING
Pat says: Nisha Pahuja/To Kill a Tiger.
Rachel says: Poor Things, Cillian Murphy, and for Zone of Interest to lose every category but sound
