Oscar Predictions and Picks: One Battleground Category After Another

Making Oscar predictions is tricky this year. Not only is the race too close to call in many categories, but the Academy has a new rule. It stipulates that voters must watch all the nominees in a category before voting. It’s a bit crazy that this rule even needs to exist, or wasn’t already a given.

One hopes that most members go full Kirsten Dunst and watch all the nominees knowing that’s what being a responsible member entails. On one hand, that rule should be easy to comply with since the Academy recognized relatively few movies this year, but gave them boatloads of nominations. So watching one film for a lone nomination shouldn’t be onerous homework when Sinners itself checks off 16 nominations and Sentimental Value accounts for 20% of the acting nominees. The rule could yield surprises that break from precedents, too. I.e.: if voters usually shy away from horror movies, say, their due diligence could pay off for films like Sinners, Weapons, or The Ugly Stepsister that genre bias might have encouraged them to skip in previous years.

It also means that key “battleground” categories in close races will be very important to watch. One Battle After Another and Sinners face off in several categories, notably the supporting races, casting, film editing, cinematography, sound, and director. Wins could be predictive of the final outcome, especially if voters are doing their due diligence yet still arriving at the early favourites.

However, published interviews with Oscar voters in the trades and predictions websites indicate that voters aren’t respecting the honour system on which the new rule operates. But the 39 “anonymous Oscar ballots” published around the web so far only represent 0.354% of the Academy’s 11,000 members, so take that voting sample with a grain of salt. And remember, just a few years ago, these anonymous ballots had Penélope Cruz leading the Best Actress field 17 votes to Jessica Chastain’s one before the latter went on to win the Oscar for The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

That Shelf invited all contributors of the website to submit their Oscar predictions, their personal picks, and any contenders that really deserved a place among the nominees. We received votes from Bil Antoniou, Courtney Small, Emma Badame, Jason Gorber, Pat Mullen, Rachel West, and Shawn Peer. So make yourself some French 75s and fasten your seatbelts for a bumpy night.

Oscar Predictions and Picks

Best Picture

The nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

Back in December, it seemed as if One Battle After Another had this one sealed up in a runaway. Now Best Picture feels like a two-horse race between Paul Thomas Anderson’s crime dramedy and Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick Sinners. Battle was arguably way out front for most of the Oscar race, but Sinners seems to have closed the gap. For one, it over-performed beyond expectations on nominations day and set a new record, somehow becoming the most-Oscar nominated film ever and yet remaining an underdog. Its subsequent SAG Ensemble win then put the only real miss in the direction of OBAA, itself an actors’ showpiece. Our critics are evenly split when it comes to predicting the winner and, in a Shelf first, our simulation of the preferential ballot yields a tie, as my vote for Hamnet and Rachel’s vote for Sentimental Value both get bumped to our #5 picks, Battle and Sinners, respectively.

Will win

One Battle After Another: Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel

Sinners: Bil, Courtney, Shawn

Should win

Bil: 1) One Battle After Another 2) The Secret Agent 3) Sentimental Value 4) Train Dreams 5) Marty Supreme 7) F1 8) Frankenstein 9) Hamnet 10) Bugonia

Courtney: 1) One Battle After Another 2) Sinners 3) The Secret Agent 4) Marty Supreme 5) Train Dreams 6) Hamnet 7) Sentimental Value 8) F1 9) Bugonia 10) Frankenstein

Emma: 1) Sinners 2) Hamnet 3) Sentimental Value 7) The Secret Agent 5) One Battle After Another 6) Frankenstein 7) Marty Supreme 8) Train Dreams 9) Bugonia 10) F1

Pat: 1) Hamnet 2) Sentimental Value 3) Marty Supreme 4) Train Dreams 5) One Battle After Another 6) Bugonia 7) The Secret Agent 8) Sinners 9) Frankenstein 10) F1

Rachel: 1) Sentimental Value 2) Frankenstein 3) Hamnet 4) Train Dreams 5) Sinners 6) F1 7) One Battle After Another 8) The Secret Agent 9) Bugonia

Shawn: 1) Sinners 2) One Battle After Another 3) Hamnet 4) Marty Supreme 5) Train Dreams 6) F1 7) Bugonia 8) Sentimental Value 9) Frankenstein

This for that

Emma says: Swap out Bugonia or F1 for No Other Choice

Best Director

The nominees: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Paul Thomas Anderson may be one of the safer bets of the nights. He’s won everywhere—the Directors’ Guild, BAFTA, Golden Globes, and he swept the critics’ awards. He’s way overdue as an auteur who often scores two or three nominations for any film he makes. However, Coogler makes a fair case of his own, as Sinners marks the evolution of a voice that started small with Fruitvale Station and grew up awfully quickly with Creed and The Black Panther movies, and then delivered the biggest original studio film ever by a Black director. If there’s a film to make an Oscar first on that front, too, Sinners might have done it any other year.

Will win

Paul Thomas Anderson: everyone

Should win

Chloé Zhao: Pat

Paul Thomas Anderson: Bil

Joachim Trier: Rachel

Ryan Coogler: Courtney, Emma, Shawn

Best Actress

The nominees: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Emma Stone, Bugonia

This is Jessie Buckley’s show. The rest is silence.

(Wish you’d gone supporting, Kate!)

Will win

Jessie Buckley: everyone

Should win

Jessie Buckley: Courtney, Emma, Pat, Shawn

Kate Hudson: Bil

Renate Reinsve: Rachel

This for that

Bil says: Swap out Emma Stone for Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)

Rachel says: Swap out Emma Stone for Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)

Best Actor

The nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Could Best Actor determine the Oscar pool? Timothée Chalamet seemed like a shoo-in until recently. Riding career-best raves as cocky table tennis player Marty Mauser, he seemed poised to rebound off a close Oscar loss last year to a win he clearly desired. Maybe his downfall was wanting it too much. The Golden Globe winner stayed in character while chasing greatness, but scored a lot of bad press with folks seeking to create narratives and fill space during the months-long race. Then he lost the BAFTA and then the SAG Award, and it felt as if that bad vibe became a reality. On the other hand, Chalamet lost the BAFTA to Brit Robert Aramayo (I Swear) and the SAG to Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) after winning it last year. Whether the latter loss reflects a change in tides or a desire to share the wealth won’t be known until Sunday night. However, I think the SAG scenario likely echoes the 2003-4 race when a tight run between actors put an overdue actor in a populist film–Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean–as a wild card from the larger and younger voting body. But then don’t count out Leo, Wagner, or Ethan, either!

Will win

Timothée Chalamet: Bil, Emma, Pat

Ethan Hawke: Rachel

Michael B. Jordan: Courtney, Jason, Shawn

Should win

Timothée Chalamet: Courtney, Pat

Leonardo DiCaprio: Bil

Ethan Hawke: Rachel

Michael B. Jordan: Shawn

Wagner Moura: Emma

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Another toughie! Taylor won the Globe, while Madigan won the SAG and Mosaku scored the BAFTA. Madigan wasn’t even nominated at the latter, which has the most notable Academy overlap across branches. The Sentimental Value nominees will likely cancel each other out, so this one’s a three-horse race between players in the Best Picture frontrunners and an actor who represents her film’s lone nomination. It’s a tough call, since Weapons requires one to sit through a pretty dumb movie for a sensational performance by Madigan that pops up an hour in, while Taylor sets the bar for One Battle After Another. After her character runs off into the horizon, the whole film chases the energy she leaves behind. Mosaku’s role is the least showy of the three, but she’s a rock in the sturdy ensemble.

Will win

Amy Madigan: Courtney, Emma, Jason, Rachel, Shawn

Wunmi Mosaku: Shawn

Teyana Taylor: Pat

Should win

Amy Madigan: Courtney, Rachel

Wunmi Mosaku: Emma, Shawn

Teyana Taylor: Bil, Pat

This for that

Bil says: Swap out Elle Fanning for Zoey Deutch (Nouvelle Vague)

Pat says: Swap out Wunmi Mosaku and Elle Fanning for Nina Hoss (Hedda) and Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman)

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

Does Sean Penn really need a third Oscar to smelt? He seems to be riding the momentum for One Battle even though he’s done virtually no campaigning for it. Meanwhile, Delroy Lindo and Stellan Skarsgard both make strong cases as overdue veterans with their first nominations. Lindo’s gained traction after scoring a nomination that few people predicted, while Skarsgard may have peaked with his Globe win. This race looks less chaotic than Best Supporting Actress does, but don’t be shocked to lose a point here too.

Will win

Delroy Lindo: Courtney

Sean Penn: Emma, Jason, Shawn

Stellan Skarsgard: Bil, Pat, Rachel

Should win

Benicio del Toro: Bil

Delroy Lindo: Courtney

Sean Penn: Shawn

Stellan Skarsgard: Emma, Pat, Rachel

This for that

Emma says: Swap out Benicio del Toro for Paul Mescal (Hamnet)

Pat says: Swap out Sean Penn for Paul Mescal (Hamnet)

Best Casting

The nominees: Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

Could this new category be a Best Picture bellwether? We’re split!

Will win

One Battle After Another: Emma, Rachel

Sinners: Bil, Courtney, Jason, Pat, Shawn

Should win

Marty Supreme: Pat

The Secret Agent: Bil

Sinners: Courtney, Emma, Rachel, Shawn

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

Like original, adapted looks like a done deal. It’s hard to feel bad since both Anderson and Coogler seem guaranteed to go home with at least one prize.

Will win

Hamnet: Emma, Rachel

One Battle After Another: Bil, Courtney, Jason, Pat, Shawn

Should win

Frankenstein: Rachel

Hamnet: Emma, Pat

One Battle After Another: Bil, Courtney, Shawn

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

Like adapted, original looks like a done deal. It’s hard to feel bad since both Coogler and Anderson seem guaranteed to go home with at least one prize.

Will win

Sinners: everyone

Should win

Sentimental Value: Bil, Pat, Rachel

Sinners: Courtney, Emma, Shawn

This for that

Pat says: Swap out It Was Just an Accident for Twinless.

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees: The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

In a shifting race, we think The Perfect Neighbor will take it, while Come See Me in the Good Light takes a piece of our hearts.

Will win

Cutting through Rocks: Courtney

Mr. Nobody Against Putin: Emma, Rachel

The Perfect Neighbor: Bil, Jason, Pat, Shawn

Should win

Come See Me in the Good Light: Emma, Pat, Rachel

The Perfect Neighbor: Bil, Courtney, Shawn

Best International Feature

The nominees: It Was Just an Accident (France), The Secret Agent (Brazil), Sentimental Value (Norway), Sirāt (Spain), The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

This race has four great films and one title representing France, but it looks to have narrowed between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value, especially since both are Best Picture nominees. Conventional wisdom says to bet on Sentimental Value since it has more nominations that its Brazilian peer, but we know how that played out last year. Arguably very different circumstances though.

Will win

The Secret Agent: Bil, Courtney, Shawn

Sentimental Value: Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel

Should win

It Was Just an Accident: Shawn

The Secret Agent: Bil, Courtney

Sirāt: Emma, Pat, Rachel

This for that

Emma says: Rachel says: Swap out It Was Just an Accident for No Other Choice (South Korea)

Rachel says: Swap out It Was Just an Accident for No Other Choice (South Korea)

Best Animated Feature

The nominees: Arco; Elio; KPop Demon Hunters; Little Amélie, or the Character of Rain; Zootopia 2

Everyone gets a point here!

Will win

KPop Demon Hunters: everyone

Should win

Arco: Bil

Elio: Shawn

KPop Demon Hunters: Courtney

Little Amélie: Emma, Pat, Rachel

Best Cinematography

The nominees: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

This category presents one of the night’s tougher calls. Recent years saw the Best Cinematography winner also score Best Visual Effects. However, Sinners marks the only overlap between the two categories and it’s by no means favoured to win for VFX. The undulating road sequence of One Battle After Another (by Michael Bauman) draws high praise for its complexity, and has notable industry wins with the American Society of Cinematographers and BAFTA, while Sinners could present the first Oscar to a woman (Autumn Durald Arkapaw), and Train Dreams wouldn’t work at all without its lyrical cinematography (by Adolpho Veloso). But our writers also can’t overlook the signatures that Dan Laustsen gives to Frankenstein or Darius Khondji to Marty Supreme.

Will win

One Battle After Another: Emma, Jason, Pat, Shawn

Sinners: Bil, Rachel

Train Dreams: Courtney

Should win

Frankenstein: Rachel

Marty Supreme: Bil

Sinners: Emma, Courtney

Train Dreams: Pat, Shawn

Best Costumes

The nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

Best Costumes often plays out synonymously with “most costumes,” so Frankenstein might be the safe bet here. However, that truly bizarre nomination for Avatar—the first in the franchise—could inspire voters to re-evaluate the idea of VFX itself. Meanwhile, the period-specific work of Hamnet, Marty Supreme, or Sinners might reward designs informed by research and immersion in another era.

Will win

Frankenstein: everyone

Should win

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Courtney

Frankenstein: Rachel, Shawn

Hamnet: Pat

Marty Supreme: Bil

Sinners: Emma

Best Production Design

The nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Doctor Frankenstein’s lab impresses, while Hamnet and Marty Supreme recreate specific locales with such detail one could mistake scenes for location shoots. Meanwhile, One Battle After Another and Sinners test voters’ devotion towards checking off one film everywhere on the ballot. Like, they didn’t build that road, guys!

Will win

Frankenstein: Bil, Emma, Jason, Pat, Shawn

Hamnet: Courtney

Sinners: Rachel

Should win

Frankenstein: Courtney, Emma, Shawn, Rachel

Hamnet: Pat

Marty Supreme: Bil

Best Film Editing

The nominees: F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

Film Editing often serves as a key race to watch leading up to Best Picture. It often tells us if a frontrunner has the goods we think it does, or it can foreshadow an upset. Just look to last year when Sean Baker won Best Film Editing, one of the night’s few surprises, and began Anora’s streak of five Oscars leading up to Best Picture. Or when La La Land lost an editing win that most people predicted and showed its first signs of trouble. A win for One Battle After Another or Sinners here might signal how the night will end. Alternatively, this category can favour showy work. Like costumes, “best editing” often equals “most editing,” so the flashier design of F1 might make the racing epic a favourite in the technical categories and leave us in suspense for Best Picture.

Will win

F1: Bil, Courtney

One Battle After Another: Emma, Jason, Pat, Shawn

Sinners: Rachel

Should win

F1: Rachel

Marty Supreme: Courtney

One Battle After Another: Bil, Pat

Sinners: Emma, Shawn

Best Sound

The nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

The vroom, vroom machine of F1 could again prevail here. Logic says if that film has enough support to score a completely random Best Picture nomination, it must have support from the tech branches. Meanwhile, Sirāt could make history with the first win for an all-women crew for their immersive work in Oliver Laxe’s desert rave. Like recent arthouse winner The Zone of Interest, Sirāt inspires passionate conversations among cinephiles about the sound design specifically. A win could be one of the night’s most inspired choices.

Will win

F1: Bil, Courtney, Jason, Pat, Shawn

One Battle After Another: Emma

Sirāt: Rachel

Should win

F1: Shawn

Frankenstein: Emma

Sirāt: Bil, Courtney, Pat, Rachel

Best Makeup

The nominees: Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

Here’s a case where the new rule that voters must watch all the nominees may come into play. Few voters across the Academy likely saw Kokuho or The Ugly Stepsister prior to the nominations, unless they were attentive to the international race for the former and are horror fans for the latter. Both nominees are surprising picks, but great outside-the-box choices. Frankenstein’s monster obviously delivers the flashiest design, if the most distracting one, while many voters likely forgot The Smashing Machine existed until now and may finally have gotten around to it as one of the category’s three nominees that represent their film’s only recognition.

Will win

Frankenstein: Everyone

Should win

Frankenstein: Bil, Courtney, Emma, Rachel

Kokuho: Courtney, Pat

Best Original Score

The nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Justice for Sirāt!

Will win

One Battle After Another: Courtney

Sinners: Bil, Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Should win

Frankenstein: Rachel

Hamnet: Pat

One Battle After Another: Bil

Sinners: Courtney, Emma, Shawn

This for that

Pat says: Swap out Frankenstein and Bugonia for Sirāt and Hedda

Best Original Song

The nominees: “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

It seems that the music branch wants Diane Warren to win an Oscar as much as Diane Warren does. Her bio doc Relentless spends considerable time chronicling her many Oscar losses before delivering her new original song. It’s basically a feature-length Oscar campaign. However, she’s likely to keep the losing streak going with two mega hits against her. “Golden” and “I Lied to You” are arguably the best elements of KPOP Demon Hunters and Sinners, respectively. Shout-out to the haunting ballad from Train Dreams.

Will win

“Golden”: Everyone

Should win

“Dear Me”: Bil

“Golden”: Courtney, Emma, Pat

“I Lied to You”: Rachel, Shawn

This for that

Pat says: Swap out “Sweet Dreams of Joy” for “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light. (How did this not get the random doc nom?)

Best Visual Effects

The nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

Third time’s likely a charm for Avatar unless voters feel it’s too been there, done that.

Will win

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Everyone

Should win

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Pat, Shawn

F1: Courtney, Emma

Jurassic World Rebirth: Bil

The Lost Bus: Rachel

Best Documentary Short

The nominees: All the Empty Rooms, Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”, The Devil Is Busy, perfectly a strangeness

Overall, we expect the powerful All the Empty Rooms to make Netflix go two for two in the documentary categories for its powerful portrait of the bedrooms of children lost to school shootings.

Will win

All the Empty Rooms: Emma, Jason, Pat, Rachel, Shawn

Children No More: Courtney

Should win

All the Empty Rooms: Shawn

Children No More: Emma

The Devil Is Busy: Rachel

perfectly a strangeness: Courtney, Pat

Best Live Action Short Film

The nominees: Butcher’s Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen’s Period Drama, The Singers, Two People Exchanging Saliva

There are three strategies to predicting the winner among the Oscar-nominated live action shorts. More often than not, betting on the worst film usually notches a point in the Oscar pool, so Two People Exchanging Saliva might be the smart wager. Secondly, one can go for the film that feels the most “timely,” as with last year’s winner, the AI satire I Am Not a Robot. Alternatively, one friend with the best track record in this category usually just ticks the first box on the list assuming that voters do the same. Both of these strategies may pay off for Butcher’s Stain, the alphabetically favoured film about Gaza-Israeli relations.

Will win

Butcher’s Stain: Courtney, Pat

A Friend of Dorothy: Emma

Jane Austen’s Period Drama: Rachel

Two People Exchanging Saliva: Jason, Shawn

Should win

Jane Austen’s Period Drama: Courtney, Emma, Pat, Rachel

Two People Exchanging Saliva: Shawn

Best Animated Short Film

The nominees: Butterfly, Forevergreen, The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Retirement Plan, The Three Sisters

Could the National Film Board of Canada score its thirteenth Oscar? The Girl Who Cried Pearls is a triumph that merits the Board’s first win in 20 years. From the technical and artistic craft, the scope of the story, and the attention to detail, this stop motion work arguably eclipses the other nominees as an all-around package. People do like cute animals, though, and this film doesn’t have them!

Will win

Butterfly: Jason

The Girl Who Cried Pearls: Courtney, Emma, Pat, Shawn

Retirement Plan: Rachel

Should win

Butterfly: Shawn

The Girl Who Cried Pearls: Courtney, Emma, Pat

Retirement Plan: Rachel